Alex Segal
Alex Segal
P
Mississippi Braves
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION9 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.5%
IP9
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Rome Braves | 21 | 1 | 26 | 113 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 15.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 2.08 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 17 | 0 | 16 | 82 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 19.8% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 5.74 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 9 | — | 9 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 1 | 42 | 195 | 34 | 32 | 5 | 17.4% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.46 | 5.15 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 5 | 200 | 936 | 163 | 154 | 24 | 17.4% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.46 | 5.15 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Segal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 82 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 78 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 77 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 77 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .268 | 3.20 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 55 | -0.05 | 3.20 | 194 | 77 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 76 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 75 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 75 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 75 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 75 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2024 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 74 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 74 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .314 | 4.06 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.57 | 3.49 | 522 | 74 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.