Trey Dillard — OGILVIE

Trey Dillard P Eugene Emeralds

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 214 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%22.6%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	40.50	8.17	—
2023	24	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	40.50	12.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	45	204	55	35	4	3%	1.3	20.2%	20.5%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.84	5.32	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	45	204	55	35	4	3%	1.3	20.2%	20.5%	-0.4%	2.4%	4.84	5.32	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	45	204	55	35	4	3%	1.3	27.0%	17.2%	9.8%	2.0%	4.84	4.15	—
2026	27	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	9	43	11	11	0	0%	1.4	25.6%	25.6%	0.0%	0.0%	6.23	4.18	—
2026	27	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	9	43	11	11	0	0%	1.4	25.6%	25.6%	0.0%	0.0%	6.23	4.18	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	9	43	11	11	0	0%	1.4	25.6%	25.6%	0.0%	0.0%	6.23	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SF	21	0	22	93	21	12	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	20	0	21	87	20	11	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.98	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.93	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		42	1	54	252	52	55	5	2%	1.3	20.7%	21.8%	-1.1%	2.0%	5.50	5.18	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	4	200	933	193	203	18	2%	1.3	20.7%	21.8%	-1.1%	2.0%	5.50	5.18	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Dillard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	22.6%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.98	22.4%	9.2%	21	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	81
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	79
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	78
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	78
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78