Ryne Nelson

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 184 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBARI	28	25	151	4.24	3.53	20.0%	5.1%	2.5
2025	27	MLBARI	33	23	154	3.39	3.62	21.3%	6.6%	2.4
2026	28	MIX3 levels	22	18	91	4.95	4.85	18.5%	5.9%	0.1	K 17.6% · BB 6.1% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	23	23	136	4.47	4.63	20.0%	6.3%	0.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBARI	21	21	128	4.57	4.71	19.3%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ	31	MLBARI	20	20	119	4.79	4.94	18.5%	7.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.116First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo77

Whiff%22

xwOBA vs19

K%18

CompsClaudio Vargas (age 29) · Domingo Germán (age 29) · Alexi Ogando (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.47

FIP4.63

K%20.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

SL+1.2 (21%)

SI (3%)

CU (9%)

CT-1.0 (10%)

FB-4.6 (61%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	3.4%	3.17	3.86	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	34.7%	8.5%	26.2%	3.4%	3.17	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	4.6%	4.96	5.04	-0.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.1%	4.96	4.52	+0.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.7%	7.4%	7.3%	4.1%	5.11	5.02	-0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	3.8%	5.11	4.91	-0.0
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+2.3
2024	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.7%	4.24	3.53	+2.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+2.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	+2.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	5.1%	4.95	5.18	-0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	5.1%	4.95	5.18	-0.3
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	18.5%	5.9%	12.6%	4.6%	4.95	4.85	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			112	93	554	2311	436	147	78	83%	4.9	18.9%	6.4%	12.5%	3.4%	4.30	4.15	+4.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	23	23	136	574	115	36	21	100%	5.9	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.7%	4.47	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	128	539	104	36	21	100%	6.1	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.9%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	119	503	93	35	21	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	4.1%	4.91	5.06	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	128	540	104	36	20	100%	6.1	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.7%	4.57	4.71	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	119	502	93	35	20	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.9%	4.79	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	134	801	3353	633	218	118	88%	5.2	18.9%	6.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.42	4.25	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	837	158	54	29	88%	5.2	18.9%	6.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.42	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		167	148	832	3478	689	248	131	89%	5.0	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.40	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	836	166	60	32	89%	5.0	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.40	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryne Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.0%	6.3%	3.7%	—	4.94	18.9%	12.1%	247	+0.31	—	—	—
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	61
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.65	22.6%	13.9%	204	+0.49	3.29	777	61
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	60
Victor Santos R 2006 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.347	5.78	16.9%	7.4%	63	+1.36	4.09	602	59
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	59
David Hale R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	29	SP	3.54	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.20	3.30	581	58
Dave Bush R 2009 · 4.55 FIP	29	SP	4.55	17.5%	6.9%	3.7%	.307	4.70	13.7%	6.7%	212	+0.15	3.65	1,141	57
Paul Byrd R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	29	SP	5.54	14.3%	8.9%	4.6%	.269	4.48	13.1%	8.6%	332	-1.06	2.13	1,697	56
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	2.94	1,185	55
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	1.87	1,044	55
Kevin Slowey R 2013 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	19.2%	4.6%	3.2%	.325	3.53	14.2%	9.5%	37	-0.28	3.53	662	55
Brian Tollberg R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	11.5%	5.9%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	297	55
Bud Norris R 2014 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	20.2%	7.3%	2.6%	.270	4.10	21.7%	12.9%	258	+0.34	3.51	1,221	55
Brian Bannister R 2010 · 5.42 FIP	29	SP	5.42	13.3%	8.6%	4.3%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	667	55
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	55
Dillon Gee R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	29	SP	3.67	14.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.339	4.47	17.1%	11.1%	252	+0.80	3.55	1,020	53
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	53
John Maine R 2010 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	20.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	582	53
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	2.82	1,054	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	134	19.0%	6.6%	1.39	4.46
Wei-Yin Chen ('19)	5.3	133	18.9%	6.0%	1.32	4.18
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Zach Plesac ('24)	2.4	96	18.1%	6.5%	1.43	4.31
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*