Jack Little
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%18.0%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.6 (27%)
FB-0.6 (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 15.2% | 19.9% | -4.7% | 4.5% | 3.27 | 6.83 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 22.6% | 15.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.87 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 0 | 31 | 142 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.75 | 5.62 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 0 | 31 | 142 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 6.75 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 20 | 0 | 19 | 95 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.3% | 17.4% | -2.0% | 4.3% | 7.71 | 6.38 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 20 | 0 | 19 | 95 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.71 | 6.37 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 57 | 237 | 63 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 7.2% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 3.79 | 4.02 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 57 | 237 | 63 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 55 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 55 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 4.15 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 29 | 2 | 40 | 165 | 40 | 14 | 6 | 7% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 3.83 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 109 | 458 | 93 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 7 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 18.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 48 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 44 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 457 | 83 | 41 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.48 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 154 | 76 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 183 | 13 | 233 | 1009 | 191 | 102 | 38 | 7% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.82 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 11 | 200 | 865 | 163 | 87 | 32 | 7% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Little (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.90 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 186 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 79 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.62 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 79 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 79 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 77 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.39 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 162 | 76 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 140 | 76 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.91 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 22 | +0.95 | 2.88 | 312 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 1.25 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |