Jack Little — OGILVIE

Jack Little P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%17.1%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

SL+0.6 (27%)

FB-0.6 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	22	93	21	14	3	100%	2.0	15.2%	19.9%	-4.7%	4.6%	3.27	6.87	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	22	93	21	14	3	100%	2.0	22.6%	15.1%	7.5%	3.2%	3.27	4.87	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	0	31	142	31	11	5	0%	1.3	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	4.7%	6.75	5.41	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	0	31	142	31	11	5	0%	1.3	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	3.5%	6.75	4.27	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	20	0	19	95	18	15	4	0%	0.9	15.3%	17.4%	-2.0%	4.7%	7.71	6.57	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	20	0	19	95	18	15	4	0%	0.9	15.3%	17.4%	-2.0%	4.7%	7.71	6.57	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	20	0	19	95	18	15	4	0%	0.9	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	4.2%	7.71	6.37	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	21.9%	6.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.79	3.78	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	21.9%	6.5%	15.4%	3.1%	3.79	3.78	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	57	237	63	16	6	0%	1.2	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	2.5%	3.79	3.10	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	6.8%	9.9%	2.3%	4.15	3.81	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	6.8%	9.9%	2.3%	4.15	3.81	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	65	277	55	21	5	0%	1.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	3	14	2	1	0	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	6.00	2.77	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	45	3	59	254	60	25	7	7%	1.3	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.23	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	45	3	59	254	60	25	7	7%	1.3	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	45	3	59	254	60	25	7	7%	1.3	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.25	3.86	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	7.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	66	281	65	27	8	—	—	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	2.8%	4.28	4.26	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	63	0	66	280	49	22	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	7.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.67	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	59	0	62	263	46	22	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.73	4.82	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	23	0	24	101	18	8	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	7.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.67	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	32	0	34	144	25	12	5	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.73	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	62	264	46	21	8	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.1%	9.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	849	148	67	26	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.1%	9.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		199	14	253	1098	201	105	37	7%	1.3	18.3%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	11	200	869	159	83	29	7%	1.3	18.3%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.61	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	17.1%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.74	17.5%	9.4%	128	+0.17	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	89
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	81
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	77
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	77
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	77
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	77
Aroni Nina R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	27	SU	3.46	14.1%	7.9%	1.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	115	77
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	76
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	76
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	76
Matt Carasiti R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	18.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.276	4.88	22.4%	10.9%	22	+0.87	2.80	312	76
Tyson Perez R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	12.2%	5.9%	3.5%	.338	5.69	14.0%	6.8%	32	+0.94	3.32	121	76
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	17.4%	7.9%	1.18	4.64
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43