Tobias Myers
P
New York Mets
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 223 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.73
FIP4.11
xFIP3.36
SIERA3.31
K%20.7%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%13.5%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p1018.2%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.268
FB+2.1 (48%)
SL+1.8 (17%)
CU (3%)
CT (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 3 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 23 | 21 | 119 | 514 | 101 | 41 | 11 | 14.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 21 | 14 | 85 | 342 | 59 | 28 | 4 | 12.8% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 2.13 | 4.07 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 25 | 22 | 118 | 479 | 146 | 28 | 19 | 25.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.90 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 23 | 22 | 76 | 379 | 54 | 51 | 15 | 12.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 7.82 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 29 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 175 | 46 | 30 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.93 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 28 | 157 | 644 | 151 | 43 | 20 | 23.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 2.81 | 3.54 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 34 | 18 | 110 | 471 | 93 | 32 | 10 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 3.56 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 6 | 0 | 13 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.46 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 19 | 7 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 74 | 306 | 60 | 19 | 9 | 19.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.50 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 56 | 18 | 8 | 19.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 50 | 17 | 8 | 19.1% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 44 | 15 | 7 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 33 | 13 | 6 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 16.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 27 | — | 27 | 113 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 154 | 826 | 3509 | 675 | 291 | 117 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.36 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 37 | 200 | 850 | 164 | 70 | 28 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tobias Myers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.32 | 19.1% | 12.6% | 186 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.04 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.38 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.34 | 4.04 | 101 | 79 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 76 |
| John Church R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.85 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 2.78 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 30 | -1.07 | 2.78 | 101 | 76 |
| Ronnie Shaban R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.37 | 14.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 104 | 76 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 76 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 76 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 76 |
| Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 75 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 75 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.95 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 230 | +0.80 | 3.95 | 297 | 75 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 75 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.46 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.13 | 4.33 | 125 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.23 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.69 | 13.1% | 5.2% | 43 | +0.46 | 3.23 | 145 | 74 |
| Danny Gutierrez R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 15.0% | 5.8% | 1.4% | .358 | 4.26 | 12.4% | 4.0% | 186 | +0.92 | 3.34 | 239 | 74 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 101 | 74 |
| Derek Self R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.89 | 11.9% | 6.7% | 3.5% | .273 | 4.68 | 14.5% | 10.7% | 131 | -0.21 | 3.85 | 302 | 74 |
| Pedro Villarreal R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .306 | 5.61 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 26 | +2.26 | 3.35 | 102 | 74 |
| Chasen Bradford R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% | .317 | 5.10 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 70 | +1.60 | 3.00 | 322 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.634 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$5M | ||