Dakota Donovan prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dakota Donovan P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 238 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.6%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	58	250	74	18	3	0%	1.7	22.2%	8.4%	13.7%	1.6%	2.33	3.15	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	58	250	74	18	3	0%	1.7	29.6%	7.2%	22.4%	1.2%	2.33	2.15	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	48	202	58	17	2	0%	1.3	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	1.6%	3.19	3.44	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	48	202	58	17	2	0%	1.3	28.7%	8.4%	20.3%	1.0%	3.19	2.29	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	242	58	27	2	0%	1.3	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	1.0%	5.76	3.65	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	242	58	27	2	0%	1.3	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	1.0%	5.76	3.65	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	50	242	58	27	2	0%	1.3	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	0.8%	5.76	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAA	31	0	32	136	29	15	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAA	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	9	4	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	82	21	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		109	0	156	694	145	72	10	0%	1.4	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	1.4%	3.69	3.41	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	890	186	92	12	0%	1.4	20.9%	10.4%	10.5%	1.4%	3.69	3.41	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dakota Donovan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.6%	10.7%	2.9%	—	4.76	21.5%	10.6%	32	+0.14	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	89
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	89
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	81
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	80
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.6%	10.8%	1.17	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49