Oliver Garcia (P, Altoona Curve) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Oliver Garcia P Altoona Curve

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 214 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%21.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	17	0	41	179	24	17	1	0%	2.4	9.1%	11.9%	-2.8%	0.8%	2.61	4.26	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates	17	0	41	179	24	17	1	0%	2.4	13.4%	9.5%	3.9%	0.6%	2.61	3.49	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	11	11	54	218	46	16	0	100%	4.9	14.3%	9.2%	5.2%	0.0%	2.15	3.05	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates	11	11	54	218	46	16	0	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	0.0%	2.15	2.29	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	10	10	38	183	28	23	5	100%	3.8	10.4%	15.7%	-5.3%	3.8%	7.28	6.31	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	10	10	38	183	28	23	5	100%	3.8	15.3%	12.6%	2.7%	2.7%	7.28	5.13	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	6	0	8	31	6	4	0	0%	1.3	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2019	21	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	6	0	8	31	6	4	0	0%	1.3	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	36	0	53	242	52	31	10	0%	1.5	16.5%	14.7%	1.8%	4.2%	4.42	5.86	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	36	0	53	242	52	31	10	0%	1.5	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	4.1%	4.42	5.35	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	3	0	4	19	6	2	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	3	0	4	19	6	2	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	41	0	46	219	50	30	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	15.1%	3.4%	1.5%	4.27	4.26	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	41	0	46	219	50	30	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	15.1%	3.4%	1.5%	4.27	4.26	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	41	0	46	219	50	30	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.7%	9.1%	1.4%	4.27	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	11.8%	9.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PIT	25	0	26	110	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.85	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	PIT	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	98	24	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.80	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		124	21	245	1091	159	145	22	17%	2.0	14.6%	13.3%	1.3%	2.0%	3.93	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	17	200	889	130	118	18	17%	2.0	14.6%	13.3%	1.3%	2.0%	3.93	4.64	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oliver Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.4%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.85	21.4%	9.7%	26	+0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	77
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	76
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	76
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	76
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.4%	11.7%	1.16	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76