Max Castillo

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 280 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX3 levels	32	21	117	4.46	4.01	24.4%	9.5%	1.2	K 21.8% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.45
2023	24	MIX2 levels	29	21	136	4.56	5.51	18.0%	6.2%	-0.9	K 15.7% · BB 5.7% · FIP 6.14
2024	25	MIX2 levels	14	13	52	7.62	6.00	16.4%	10.2%	—	K 15.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 6.34
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	26	26	156	4.55	4.62	21.5%	8.9%	0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBPHI	9	9	55	4.65	4.74	21.0%	9.0%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBPHI	13	13	77	4.79	4.91	20.4%	9.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo36

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsPatrick Johnson (age 27) · Hector Velázquez (age 28) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.55

FIP4.62

K%21.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP156

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1011.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

CH+1.3

FB-1.1

SL-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	13	12	50	213	40	16	2	92%	3.8	12.8%	9.4%	3.4%	1.3%	4.14	3.93	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	13	12	50	213	40	16	2	92%	3.8	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	0.9%	4.14	2.98	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	10	10	47	200	52	7	4	100%	4.7	17.7%	4.4%	13.3%	2.8%	3.80	3.70	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	10	10	47	200	52	7	4	100%	4.7	26.0%	3.5%	22.5%	2.0%	3.80	2.45	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	28	22	131	568	115	42	12	79%	4.7	15.0%	8.7%	6.3%	2.7%	4.52	4.40	—
2018	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	28	22	131	568	115	42	12	79%	4.7	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	2.1%	4.52	3.50	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	24	24	130	523	114	28	8	100%	5.4	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.6%	2.69	3.34	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	24	24	130	523	114	28	8	100%	5.4	21.8%	5.4%	16.4%	1.5%	2.69	2.79	—
2021	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	102	441	89	35	12	95%	4.9	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	3.4%	4.85	4.67	—
2021	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	102	441	89	35	12	95%	4.9	20.2%	7.9%	12.2%	2.7%	4.85	3.91	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	21	117	505	123	48	16	66%	3.7	21.8%	10.0%	11.9%	3.5%	4.46	4.45	+0.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	21	117	505	123	48	16	66%	3.7	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	+1.2
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	136	579	104	36	33	72%	4.7	15.7%	5.7%	10.0%	6.6%	4.56	6.14	-1.8
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	136	579	104	36	33	72%	4.7	18.0%	6.2%	11.7%	5.7%	4.56	5.51	-0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	5.9%	7.62	6.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	5.9%	7.62	6.34	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	4.9%	7.62	6.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	6	60	259	47	23	10	29%	2.8	18.1%	8.9%	9.3%	3.9%	5.43	4.86	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	26	26	156	659	142	59	22	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	149	630	132	57	22	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	140	592	121	55	21	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.2%	11.1%	3.6%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	55	232	49	21	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	77	325	66	30	12	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.2%	11.1%	3.6%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	28	192	817	162	74	30	65%	4.5	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.95	4.57	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	29	200	852	169	77	31	65%	4.5	19.8%	9.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.95	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		171	143	766	3273	546	258	117	84%	4.5	16.7%	7.9%	8.8%	3.6%	4.39	4.65	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	854	142	67	31	84%	4.5	16.7%	7.9%	8.8%	3.6%	4.39	4.65	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.5%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.82	20.7%	11.6%	290	+0.20	—	—	—
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	75
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	74
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	73
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	73
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	384	72
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	72
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	72
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	71
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	70
Miguel González R 2012 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP	4.05	17.7%	7.6%	2.7%	.254	4.41	16.9%	9.5%	475	+0.36	3.72	905	70
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	70
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	70
Drew Gagnon R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	22.0%	7.0%	3.9%	.309	5.15	16.8%	11.8%	112	+0.91	3.71	534	70
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	70
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	70
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	101	20.6%	9.1%	1.36	4.75
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Julio Moreno ('50-'53, 1 WAR*)	1.7	84	15.5%*	9.0%*	1.33*	4.65*
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Drew Hutchison ('22)	2.9	84	19.2%	8.2%	1.29	4.89