Edwar Colina prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Edwar Colina P Round Rock Express

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB-0.7

SL-2.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	14	13	59	246	52	26	1	93%	4.2	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.30	3.87	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	14	13	59	246	52	26	1	93%	4.2	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	0.4%	2.30	2.88	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	12	11	59	255	56	29	6	92%	4.9	14.9%	14.2%	0.7%	3.3%	3.34	5.45	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	12	11	59	255	56	29	6	92%	4.9	22.0%	11.4%	10.6%	2.4%	3.34	3.99	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	109	457	106	53	5	95%	5.2	17.2%	14.5%	2.8%	1.1%	2.63	4.08	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	109	457	106	53	5	95%	5.2	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	1.1%	2.63	3.21	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	97	402	102	32	4	74%	5.1	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	0.7%	2.96	2.91	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	97	402	102	32	4	74%	5.1	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	1.0%	2.96	2.52	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	1	0	0	7	0	2	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	81.00	14.56	-0.0
2020	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	1	0	0	7	0	2	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	81.00	60.10	-0.2
2023	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	26	2	31	133	30	20	4	8%	1.2	19.4%	13.5%	5.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.93	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	26	2	31	133	30	20	4	8%	1.2	19.4%	13.5%	5.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.93	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	26	2	31	133	30	20	4	8%	1.2	22.6%	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	4.65	4.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	0	7	0	2	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	81.00	60.10	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	3	3	20	84	18	9	3	100%	6.7	21.7%	10.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	21.7%	10.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	1	8	38	7	5	2	50%	3.8	17.7%	14.0%	3.7%	5.2%	8.01	6.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		58	32	200	990	182	130	52	55%	3.5	17.7%	14.0%	3.7%	5.2%	8.01	6.26	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		93	60	356	1500	260	191	23	65%	3.8	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	1.5%	3.03	4.09	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	843	146	107	13	65%	3.8	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	1.5%	3.03	4.09	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwar Colina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.9%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.77	21.7%	10.9%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	65
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	65
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	65
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	64
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	63
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	63
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	62
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	61
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	61
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	59
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	59
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	58
Dustin McGowan R 2011 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP-	5.34	20.8%	13.5%	4.2%	.271	4.46	18.5%	9.4%	108	-0.88	3.36	690	57
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	57
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	57
Johnny Barbato R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	29	SP-	3.84	17.5%	8.9%	2.0%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	304	57
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	57