Jose Chacin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jose Chacin P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 192 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP73

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	12	12	63	251	51	10	1	100%	5.3	13.8%	5.0%	8.8%	0.6%	1.71	2.87	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 1	12	12	63	251	51	10	1	100%	5.3	20.3%	4.0%	16.3%	0.4%	1.71	2.17	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	15	4	42	170	41	6	5	27%	2.8	16.4%	4.4%	12.0%	4.1%	4.04	4.53	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	15	4	42	170	41	6	5	27%	2.8	24.1%	3.5%	20.6%	2.9%	4.04	3.12	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	99	430	79	24	5	95%	5.2	12.9%	6.8%	6.1%	1.5%	3.35	3.68	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	99	430	79	24	5	95%	5.2	18.4%	5.6%	12.8%	1.2%	3.35	2.89	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	26	12	127	550	95	25	9	46%	4.9	12.8%	5.4%	7.4%	2.1%	4.68	3.85	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	26	12	127	550	95	25	9	46%	4.9	17.3%	4.5%	12.7%	1.6%	4.68	3.12	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	61	241	58	17	7	79%	4.3	18.0%	8.5%	9.5%	3.9%	3.26	4.78	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	11	61	241	58	17	7	79%	4.3	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	2.9%	3.26	3.53	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	119	521	116	36	16	89%	4.4	17.9%	7.6%	10.2%	4.1%	5.05	4.82	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	119	521	116	36	16	89%	4.4	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	3.1%	5.05	3.80	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	106	453	91	31	25	75%	3.8	16.6%	7.0%	9.6%	6.8%	5.25	6.34	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	106	453	91	31	25	75%	3.8	16.6%	7.0%	9.6%	6.8%	5.25	6.34	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	106	453	91	31	25	75%	3.8	20.1%	6.8%	13.2%	5.5%	5.25	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	3.4%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	68	289	55	24	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.77	4.85	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	64	270	51	23	10	100%	5.8	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.7%	4.90	5.01	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	21	89	17	7	3	100%	7.0	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.77	4.85	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	33	139	27	12	5	100%	6.6	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.7%	4.90	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	54	229	44	20	8	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.56	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	74	29	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		141	102	618	2616	400	171	88	72%	4.4	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.15	4.48	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	33	200	846	129	55	28	72%	4.4	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.15	4.48	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Chacin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.1%	7.8%	3.4%	—	4.93	19.1%	10.7%	132	+0.22	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	83
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	80
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	79
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	72
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	72
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	72
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	72
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	71
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	71
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	71
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	71
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	71
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	71
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	70
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	70
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	69
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.1%	8.2%	1.37	4.79
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65