Jake Polancic — OGILVIE

Jake Polancic P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%20.8%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	4	11	50	6	1	2	67%	1.8	8.2%	2.5%	5.7%	5.6%	7.59	5.80	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	4	11	50	6	1	2	67%	1.8	12.0%	2.0%	10.0%	4.0%	7.59	4.69	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	13	5	46	230	54	24	4	38%	3.6	16.0%	13.0%	2.9%	2.4%	7.38	4.74	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	13	5	46	230	54	24	4	38%	3.6	23.5%	10.4%	13.0%	1.7%	7.38	3.45	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	18	0	21	95	23	15	1	0%	1.1	16.5%	19.7%	-3.3%	1.5%	5.23	5.02	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	18	0	21	95	23	15	1	0%	1.1	24.2%	15.8%	8.4%	1.1%	5.23	3.68	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	14	0	13	65	12	14	4	0%	0.9	14.2%	24.8%	-10.6%	7.9%	9.24	9.35	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	14	0	13	65	12	14	4	0%	0.9	14.2%	24.8%	-10.6%	7.9%	9.24	9.35	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	14	0	13	65	12	14	4	0%	0.9	18.5%	21.5%	-3.1%	6.2%	9.24	8.63	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	15.5%	5.3%	3.1%	5.41	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.38	5.43	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.38	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.38	5.05	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	132	33	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.38	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		51	9	90	440	66	66	15	18%	1.8	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.4%	7.17	5.60	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	20	200	974	145	146	33	18%	1.8	14.9%	15.0%	-0.1%	3.4%	7.17	5.60	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Polancic (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	20.8%	15.5%	3.1%	—	5.43	20.8%	5.7%	20	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	76
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	75
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	75
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	74
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	74
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	73
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	73
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	73
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	72
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	71
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	71
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	71