Graeme Stinson prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Graeme Stinson P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%21.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	0.7	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	13.50	0.99	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	0.7	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	13.50	0.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	2	49	225	39	24	7	8%	1.9	12.6%	12.6%	-0.0%	3.7%	5.55	5.66	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	2	49	225	39	24	7	8%	1.9	17.3%	10.7%	6.7%	3.1%	5.55	4.85	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	63	285	84	30	4	0%	1.6	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.0%	4.26	3.56	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	63	285	84	30	4	0%	1.6	29.5%	10.5%	18.9%	1.4%	4.26	2.69	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	48	228	58	33	5	6%	1.6	19.5%	15.6%	3.9%	2.6%	5.77	4.85	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	48	228	58	33	5	6%	1.6	19.5%	15.6%	3.9%	2.6%	5.77	4.85	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	2	48	228	58	33	5	6%	1.6	25.4%	14.5%	11.0%	2.2%	5.77	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	24	0	26	108	23	13	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.86	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	100	25	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		97	5	161	742	139	94	20	5%	1.7	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	2.7%	5.14	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	922	173	117	25	5%	1.7	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	2.7%	5.14	4.58	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Graeme Stinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	21.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.86	21.8%	9.9%	26	+0.08	—	—	—
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	82
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	79
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	79
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	79
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	78
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	78
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	77
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	77
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	77
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	76
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	76
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	76
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	76
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	75
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	75
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	75
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.8%	11.9%	1.18	4.79
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16