Abdiel Mendoza

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	35	9	87	3.71	3.98	19.4%	8.2%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.12
2025	26	AAMIL	33	6	81	4.09	3.33	22.4%	8.0%	—	K 18.2% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.82
2026	27	AASEA	16	2	34	6.55	4.91	19.6%	7.0%	—	K 15.9% · BB 7.7% · FIP 5.65
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	56	0	59	4.91	4.91	16.7%	8.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBSEA	17	0	18	4.93	4.98	17.1%	9.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBSEA	26	0	27	5.02	5.11	17.2%	9.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDonovan Hand (age 27) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%16.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	17	0	31	127	25	9	0	0%	1.8	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	0.0%	2.32	3.09	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	17	0	31	127	25	9	0	0%	1.8	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	0.0%	2.32	2.36	—
2017	18	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	1	1	2	13	2	3	1	100%	2.3	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	7.7%	15.43	8.95	—
2017	18	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	1	1	2	13	2	3	1	100%	2.3	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	7.7%	15.43	10.81	—
2018	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2018	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	8	86	342	75	25	8	32%	3.4	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	2.6%	3.15	4.23	—
2019	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	25	8	86	342	75	25	8	32%	3.4	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	2.3%	3.15	3.44	—
2021	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	10	7	36	164	40	16	3	70%	3.6	18.0%	11.5%	6.5%	2.4%	4.95	4.35	—
2021	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	10	7	36	164	40	16	3	70%	3.6	24.4%	9.8%	14.6%	1.8%	4.95	3.29	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	29	8	81	343	64	39	5	28%	2.8	14.4%	13.1%	1.3%	1.9%	2.78	4.59	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	29	8	81	343	64	39	5	28%	2.8	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	1.5%	2.78	3.77	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	9	71	300	68	25	6	35%	2.7	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.42	4.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	9	71	300	68	25	6	35%	2.7	22.7%	8.3%	14.3%	2.0%	3.42	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	15.7%	8.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.71	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	15.7%	8.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.71	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	2.7%	3.71	3.98	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.09	3.82	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.09	3.82	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.0%	4.09	3.33	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	5.3%	6.55	5.65	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	5.3%	6.55	5.65	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	19.6%	7.0%	12.7%	4.4%	6.55	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	56	0	59	249	41	22	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	56	237	41	21	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	3.3%	4.93	4.98	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	50	0	53	223	38	21	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.02	5.11	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	17	0	18	76	13	7	2	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	3.3%	4.93	4.98	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	26	0	27	114	20	11	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.02	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	32	17	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.2%	7.9%	3.4%	4.98	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	76	27	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.2%	7.9%	3.4%	4.98	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		193	50	513	2182	355	211	51	26%	2.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.4%	3.72	4.24	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	19	200	850	138	82	20	26%	2.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.4%	3.72	4.24	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abdiel Mendoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	16.7%	8.8%	3.1%	—	5.04	17.1%	7.9%	109	+0.13	—	—	—
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	86
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	84
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	84
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	83
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	82
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	79
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	78
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	75
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	75
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	75
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.0%	9.1%	1.27	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*