Antonio Santos
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.2
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP4.60
SIERA4.41
K%20.9%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.5%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4550
CH+0.7
FB-0.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 6 | 5 | 24 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 11.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 2.91 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 2 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 27 | 27 | 147 | 650 | 106 | 26 | 17 | 12.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 27 | 27 | 152 | 659 | 142 | 33 | 23 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 26 | 26 | 145 | 622 | 140 | 28 | 14 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 3.40 | +3.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 16.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 41 | 2 | 57 | 258 | 42 | 32 | 11 | 13.3% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 7.31 | 6.19 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 29 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 5.74 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 14 | 13 | 70 | 284 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 3.99 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 25 | 19 | 94 | 394 | 86 | 47 | 6 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.46 | 4.07 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 70 | 45 | 10 | 19.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 68 | 42 | 10 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 72 | 37 | 10 | 21.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 69 | 36 | 10 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 65 | 35 | 10 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 56 | 32 | 9 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 51 | 31 | 9 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 122 | 747 | 3231 | 523 | 245 | 94 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.29 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 140 | 66 | 25 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Antonio Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 19.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.82 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 236 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 84 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 81 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 80 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 80 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.00 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 5.36 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 102 | +0.36 | 4.13 | 265 | 79 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 76 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 76 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 76 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.58 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.49 | 3.58 | 139 | 76 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 76 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 76 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.84 | 18.0% | 11.4% | 179 | -0.08 | 3.45 | 315 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 75 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 74 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 74 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.