Antonio Santos
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.21
FIP5.21
K%18.4%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH+0.7
FB-0.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 6 | 5 | 24 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 83% | 4.0 | 11.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 2.91 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 6 | 5 | 24 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 83% | 4.0 | 17.2% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 2.31 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 2 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.46 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 2 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.70 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 27 | 27 | 147 | 650 | 106 | 26 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.1% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 5.39 | 3.93 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | 27 | 27 | 147 | 650 | 106 | 26 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.3% | 4.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 5.39 | 3.69 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 152 | 659 | 142 | 33 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 3.93 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 152 | 659 | 142 | 33 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 5.0% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 3.85 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 145 | 622 | 140 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.53 | 3.27 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 145 | 622 | 140 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.5% | 4.5% | 18.0% | 2.3% | 4.53 | 3.00 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 33% | 2.0 | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 16.50 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 33% | 2.0 | 11.4% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 16.50 | 5.93 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 2 | 57 | 258 | 42 | 32 | 11 | 5% | 1.4 | 13.3% | 13.4% | -0.1% | 3.9% | 7.31 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 2 | 57 | 258 | 42 | 32 | 11 | 5% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 7.31 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.74 | 5.51 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 42 | 194 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 5.74 | 4.56 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 14 | 13 | 70 | 284 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 93% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 3.99 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 14 | 13 | 70 | 284 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 93% | 5.0 | 28.2% | 8.8% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 94 | 394 | 86 | 47 | 6 | 76% | 3.7 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 3.46 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 94 | 394 | 86 | 47 | 6 | 76% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 3.46 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 53 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.4% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 18.6% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 10 | 68 | 297 | 54 | 38 | 9 | 53% | 3.6 | 18.2% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 6.18 | 4.83 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 28 | 200 | 867 | 158 | 111 | 26 | 51% | 3.7 | 18.2% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 6.18 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 122 | 747 | 3231 | 523 | 245 | 85 | 61% | 3.7 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.14 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 140 | 66 | 23 | 61% | 3.7 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Antonio Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 18.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | — | 5.36 | 18.6% | 5.2% | 125 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 77 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 73 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 70 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 70 |
| Mark Appel R 2027 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 70 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 70 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 70 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 70 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 69 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 69 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 69 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 69 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 68 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 328 | 68 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 67 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 1.19 | 5.25 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |