Antonio Santos — OGILVIE

Antonio Santos P Knoxville Smokies

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%18.4%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

CH+0.7

FB-0.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	6	5	24	99	17	5	0	83%	4.0	11.7%	6.3%	5.4%	0.0%	0.75	2.91	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	6	5	24	99	17	5	0	83%	4.0	17.2%	5.1%	12.1%	0.0%	0.75	2.31	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	2	2	10	36	7	0	0	100%	5.0	19.4%	0.0%	19.4%	0.0%	1.80	1.46	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	2	2	10	36	7	0	0	100%	5.0	19.4%	0.0%	19.4%	0.0%	1.80	1.70	—
2017	20	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	27	27	147	650	106	26	17	100%	5.4	12.1%	4.7%	7.3%	2.7%	5.39	4.18	—
2017	20	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	27	27	147	650	106	26	17	100%	5.4	16.3%	4.0%	12.3%	2.6%	5.39	3.69	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	152	659	142	33	23	100%	5.6	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.27	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	152	659	142	33	23	100%	5.6	21.5%	5.0%	16.5%	3.5%	4.80	3.85	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	622	140	28	14	100%	5.6	17.6%	5.1%	12.5%	2.2%	4.53	3.47	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	145	622	140	28	14	100%	5.6	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%	2.3%	4.53	3.00	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	3	1	6	35	4	4	1	33%	2.0	11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	2.9%	16.50	5.15	-0.0
2020	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	3	1	6	35	4	4	1	33%	2.0	11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	2.9%	16.50	5.93	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	57	258	42	32	11	5%	1.4	13.3%	13.4%	-0.1%	4.4%	7.31	6.10	-1.0
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	57	258	42	32	11	5%	1.4	16.3%	12.4%	3.9%	4.3%	7.31	5.84	-0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	194	43	19	7	0%	1.5	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	4.4%	5.74	5.33	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	42	194	43	19	7	0%	1.5	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.6%	5.74	4.56	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	4.5%	3.99	4.84	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	4.5%	3.99	4.84	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	14	13	70	284	80	25	9	93%	5.0	28.2%	8.8%	19.4%	3.2%	3.99	3.56	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	1.6%	3.46	4.03	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	1.6%	3.46	4.03	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	94	394	86	47	6	76%	3.7	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	1.5%	3.46	3.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	1	17	81	14	9	2	10%	1.7	17.3%	11.1%	6.2%	2.5%	8.83	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CHC	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.1%	6.4%	2.8%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	64	272	51	33	8	100%	5.9	18.6%	12.1%	6.5%	3.0%	5.04	5.11	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	60	254	47	31	8	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.3%	3.3%	5.15	5.25	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	20	84	16	10	3	100%	6.7	18.6%	12.1%	6.5%	3.0%	5.04	5.11	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	31	131	24	16	4	100%	6.2	18.6%	12.2%	6.3%	3.3%	5.15	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	10	68	297	54	35	9	53%	3.6	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	3.0%	6.05	4.70	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	28	200	867	158	102	26	51%	3.7	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	3.0%	6.05	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		200	122	747	3231	522	242	93	61%	3.7	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	865	140	65	25	61%	3.7	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.27	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antonio Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	18.4%	12.1%	2.8%	—	5.18	18.6%	6.4%	125	+0.18	—	—	—
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	80
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	75
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	73
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	71
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	71
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	70
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	70
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	70
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	70
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	69
José A. Váldez R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP-	4.21	16.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	328	69
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	69
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	18.5%	12.1%	1.17	5.06
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04