Shea Spitzbarth — OGILVIE

Shea Spitzbarth P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%20.6%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

CT+0.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	15	0	20	85	28	13	1	0%	1.3	22.4%	19.1%	3.3%	1.6%	2.75	4.53	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	15	0	20	85	28	13	1	0%	1.3	32.9%	15.3%	17.6%	1.2%	2.75	2.90	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	40	162	60	12	3	0%	1.7	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	2.4%	2.72	2.97	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	40	162	60	12	3	0%	1.7	37.0%	7.4%	29.6%	1.9%	2.72	1.97	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	70	291	77	23	3	0%	1.6	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	1.0%	2.45	2.96	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	70	291	77	23	3	0%	1.6	26.5%	7.9%	18.6%	1.0%	2.45	2.44	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	283	86	23	11	0%	1.7	25.6%	8.3%	17.3%	3.9%	4.32	4.15	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	67	283	86	23	11	0%	1.7	30.4%	8.1%	22.3%	3.9%	4.32	3.70	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	66	284	89	24	7	0%	1.3	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	2.6%	4.09	3.50	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	66	284	89	24	7	0%	1.3	31.3%	8.5%	22.9%	2.5%	4.09	2.87	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	52	213	42	21	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.4%	8.4%	2.1%	2.26	3.98	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	52	213	42	21	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.9%	9.9%	2.3%	2.26	3.95	+0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	54	224	46	32	4	5%	1.2	15.9%	15.6%	0.3%	2.3%	2.85	4.99	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	54	224	46	32	4	5%	1.2	20.5%	14.3%	6.2%	1.8%	2.85	4.14	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	12	0	15	69	10	14	1	0%	1.2	12.0%	18.3%	-6.2%	1.5%	7.20	5.23	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	12	0	15	69	10	14	1	0%	1.2	12.0%	18.3%	-6.2%	1.5%	7.20	5.23	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	12	0	15	69	10	14	1	0%	1.2	14.5%	20.3%	-5.8%	1.4%	7.20	5.43	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	5	22	1	2	1	0%	1.0	4.5%	9.1%	-4.5%	4.5%	3.60	6.50	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	53	7	5	2	0%	1.0	13.9%	10.3%	3.5%	3.8%	4.34	5.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	859	113	81	32	0%	1.0	13.9%	10.3%	3.5%	3.8%	4.34	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		277	2	382	1611	356	173	37	1%	1.4	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	2.3%	3.32	3.86	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	1	200	843	186	90	19	1%	1.4	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	2.3%	3.32	3.86	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shea Spitzbarth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.6%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.94	20.5%	9.3%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	76
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	70
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	70
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	70
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	119	69
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	69
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	69
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	69
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	69
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	68
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	67
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	67
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	66
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	66
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	65
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	65
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	65
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	65