Shea Spitzbarth
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP8.80
SIERA8.60
K%22.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.0%
IP12
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
CT+0.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 15 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 22.4% | 19.1% | 1.6% | 2.75 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 21 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 24 | 0 | 40 | 162 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 2.72 | 2.96 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 43 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 2.45 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 40 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 86 | 23 | 11 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.32 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 52 | 0 | 66 | 284 | 89 | 24 | 7 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 3.51 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 2.26 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 44 | 2 | 54 | 224 | 46 | 32 | 4 | 15.9% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 2.85 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 12.8% | 21.3% | 1.5% | 7.20 | 5.56 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 12 | — | 12 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 277 | 2 | 382 | 1611 | 356 | 175 | 38 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 3.89 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 186 | 92 | 20 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shea Spitzbarth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.50 | 22.6% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 75 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 75 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 72 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 71 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 70 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 69 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .282 | 3.52 | 30.5% | 24.0% | 421 | -1.04 | 1.99 | 1,253 | 69 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 68 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .247 | 3.95 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.43 | 3.17 | 272 | 68 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 68 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 67 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .345 | 2.77 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.46 | 2.11 | 300 | 67 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 67 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.