Shea Spitzbarth
P
Louisville Bats
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%22.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+0.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 15 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.75 | 4.53 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 15 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.9% | 15.3% | 17.6% | 1.2% | 2.75 | 2.90 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 0 | 40 | 162 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 20.5% | 2.5% | 2.72 | 3.02 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 0 | 40 | 162 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 37.0% | 7.4% | 29.6% | 1.9% | 2.72 | 1.97 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 2.45 | 2.86 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.5% | 7.9% | 18.6% | 1.0% | 2.45 | 2.44 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 86 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 3.90 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 86 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.7 | 30.4% | 8.1% | 22.3% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 3.70 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 66 | 284 | 89 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 3.45 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 66 | 284 | 89 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.3% | 8.5% | 22.9% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 2.87 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 2.26 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 52 | 213 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 2.26 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 54 | 224 | 46 | 32 | 4 | 5% | 1.2 | 15.9% | 15.6% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.85 | 4.96 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 54 | 224 | 46 | 32 | 4 | 5% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 2.85 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.8% | 21.3% | -8.6% | 1.4% | 7.20 | 5.51 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.5% | 20.3% | -5.8% | 1.4% | 7.20 | 5.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 53 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 5.13 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 130 | 81 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 277 | 2 | 382 | 1611 | 356 | 175 | 35 | 1% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 3.79 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 187 | 92 | 18 | 1% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shea Spitzbarth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.64 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 20 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 74 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | 2.47 | 22.0% | 15.7% | 31 | -1.43 | 2.37 | 363 | 71 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 68 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .247 | 3.86 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.44 | 3.15 | 272 | 68 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 68 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 67 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.17 | 2.78 | 596 | 67 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .345 | 2.81 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.48 | 2.23 | 367 | 67 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 67 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 67 |