Trevor Kelley
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 119
ERA4.80
FIP5.28
K%18.4%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p1015.9%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+1.3
CT-1.2
SL-1.4
CH-1.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 1.59 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 1.29 | 1.67 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.3% | 3.1% | 16.3% | 1.7% | 1.83 | 2.79 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.0% | 2.5% | 24.5% | 1.3% | 1.83 | 1.88 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 61 | 241 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 2.36 | 3.22 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 61 | 241 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 0.8% | 2.36 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 45 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 0.7% | 2.88 | 3.32 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 45 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 0.8% | 2.88 | 3.08 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 74 | 308 | 69 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 2.57 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 74 | 308 | 69 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 2.57 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.3% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.80 | 7.32 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.3% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.80 | 8.80 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 37 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 46 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 1.4% | 1.52 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 37 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 46 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 10.6% | 18.1% | 1.2% | 1.52 | 2.74 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 3.88 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 3.6% | 3.88 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 6 | 49 | 222 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 16% | 1.3 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 5.33 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 6 | 49 | 222 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 16% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 5.33 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 62 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 3.52 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 62 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 3.52 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 47 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 42 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 36 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 31 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.78 | 6.03 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.49 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.4% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 5.74 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.78 | 6.03 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 3 | 54 | 250 | 48 | 22 | 16 | 7% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 6.65 | 6.01 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 11 | 200 | 922 | 177 | 81 | 59 | 7% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 6.65 | 6.01 | -1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 354 | 6 | 443 | 1863 | 375 | 157 | 47 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.84 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 3 | 200 | 842 | 169 | 71 | 21 | 2% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Kelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.73 | 17.4% | 4.6% | 148 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.88 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 114 | 69 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 68 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .242 | 4.23 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 47 | +0.04 | 3.79 | 887 | 68 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 227 | 67 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.23 | 12.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | .318 | 4.18 | 23.7% | 15.5% | 155 | -1.05 | 3.15 | 244 | 67 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 66 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.48 | 17.6% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 256 | 66 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 66 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 65 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 65 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.34 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 5.1% | .274 | 6.16 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.82 | 2.45 | 260 | 65 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 17.7% | 12.6% | 1.42 | 5.26 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |