Trevor Kelley
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
ERA5.12
FIP4.62
xFIP6.08
SIERA5.24
K%22.4%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.8%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p1015.9%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+1.3
CT-1.2
SL-1.4
CH-1.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 19.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.83 | 2.79 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 38 | 0 | 61 | 241 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 2.36 | 3.21 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 41 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 45 | 21 | 2 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 0.8% | 2.88 | 3.41 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 74 | 308 | 69 | 23 | 10 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 2.57 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 37 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 46 | 17 | 2 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 1.52 | 3.13 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 52 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 38 | 6 | 49 | 222 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 5.33 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 62 | 32 | 7 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 17.7% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 31 | 20 | 6 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 16.9% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 354 | 6 | 443 | 1863 | 375 | 157 | 47 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.85 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 3 | 200 | 842 | 169 | 71 | 21 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.85 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Kelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 17.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.34 | 17.3% | 6.2% | 126 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 75 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 71 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 70 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 70 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 227 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.22 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 4.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 261 | 70 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.81 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .327 | 3.77 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -1.04 | 2.94 | 533 | 70 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 69 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 69 |
| Tyson Ross R 2025 · 5.72 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.72 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.6% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 449 | 68 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 67 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 67 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.34 | 12.7% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 15.5% | 155 | -1.27 | 3.13 | 244 | 67 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.