Trevor Kelley — OGILVIE

Trevor Kelley P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.78

FIP5.21

K%17.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+1.3

CT-1.2

SL-1.4

CH-1.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	6	0	7	28	8	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.29	1.59	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	6	0	7	28	8	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.29	1.67	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	39	159	43	4	2	0%	1.8	19.3%	3.1%	16.3%	1.7%	1.83	2.79	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	39	159	43	4	2	0%	1.8	27.0%	2.5%	24.5%	1.3%	1.83	1.88	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	61	241	49	15	2	0%	1.6	15.9%	7.0%	8.9%	1.0%	2.36	3.21	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	61	241	49	15	2	0%	1.6	20.3%	6.2%	14.1%	0.8%	2.36	2.66	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	238	45	21	2	0%	1.4	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	0.8%	2.88	3.39	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	56	238	45	21	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.88	3.08	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	74	308	69	23	10	0%	1.2	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.2%	2.57	3.98	+0.5
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	74	308	69	23	10	0%	1.2	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	3.2%	2.57	3.93	+0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	4	0	3	19	5	1	2	0%	0.8	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	10.5%	10.80	7.32	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	4	0	3	19	5	1	2	0%	0.8	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	10.5%	10.80	8.80	-0.2
2021	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	37	0	41	160	46	17	2	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.2%	14.1%	1.4%	1.52	3.13	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	37	0	41	160	46	17	2	0%	1.1	28.7%	10.6%	18.1%	1.2%	1.52	2.74	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	58	247	65	19	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.6%	3.88	4.05	+0.3
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	58	247	65	19	9	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	3.6%	3.88	3.86	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	6	49	222	40	16	11	16%	1.3	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	-0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	6	49	222	40	16	11	16%	1.3	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	6	49	222	40	16	11	16%	1.3	18.0%	7.2%	10.8%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	-0.5
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	2.8%	3.52	4.35	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	2.8%	3.52	4.35	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	54	0	54	241	62	32	7	0%	1.0	25.7%	13.3%	12.4%	2.9%	3.52	4.27	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	3	51	235	45	20	15	7%	1.2	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	6.4%	6.75	6.36	-1.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	SEA	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.9%	6.6%	3.3%	4.78	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	55	233	40	26	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	11.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.13	5.43	-0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	50	209	35	24	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.7%	5.1%	3.9%	5.43	5.68	-0.6
2029	36	MLB MLE	SEA	42	0	44	185	30	22	8	0%	1.0	16.1%	12.1%	3.9%	4.2%	5.73	5.98	-0.7
2027	34	MLB CTX	SEA	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	17.2%	11.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.13	5.43	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.7%	11.7%	5.1%	3.9%	5.43	5.68	—
2029	36	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.1%	12.1%	3.9%	4.2%	5.73	5.98	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	3	54	250	48	22	16	7%	1.2	19.0%	8.7%	10.4%	6.2%	6.65	6.01	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	11	200	922	177	81	59	7%	1.2	19.0%	8.7%	10.4%	6.2%	6.65	6.01	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		354	6	443	1863	370	150	48	2%	1.3	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.6%	3.05	3.85	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	3	200	842	167	68	22	2%	1.3	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.6%	3.05	3.85	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	17.5%	10.9%	3.3%	—	5.68	16.7%	5.1%	148	+0.47	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	73
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	72
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	71
Steve Cishek R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.234	3.81	23.2%	12.9%	155	-0.31	2.86	453	70
Jeff Manship R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	31	SU	4.87	19.0%	10.6%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	70
Matt Albers R 2016 · 5.27 FIP	33	SU	5.27	12.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.318	4.05	23.7%	15.5%	155	-1.22	3.15	244	69
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	69
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	69
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	68
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	68
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	67
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	67
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	67
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Junichi Tazawa R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	33	SU	4.16	17.0%	8.4%	2.6%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	66
Craig Stammen R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	22.5%	7.6%	3.6%	.257	2.86	23.9%	19.8%	185	-1.26	1.82	407	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	17.0%	11.4%	1.44	5.23
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58