Kyle Dowdy prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Kyle Dowdy P Norfolk Tides

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.11

FIP4.99

K%21.9%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.393

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	23	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	23	16	108	447	86	24	6	70%	4.7	14.2%	6.3%	7.9%	2.3%	2.84	3.94	—
2016	23	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	23	16	108	447	86	24	6	70%	4.7	19.2%	5.4%	13.9%	1.3%	2.84	2.90	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	25	22	134	556	121	28	8	88%	5.4	16.8%	5.8%	11.0%	1.0%	3.83	2.98	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	25	22	134	556	121	28	8	88%	5.4	21.8%	5.0%	16.7%	1.4%	3.83	2.70	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	20	124	537	120	50	12	67%	4.1	18.7%	10.0%	8.6%	3.1%	5.15	4.51	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	20	124	537	120	50	12	67%	4.1	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	2.2%	5.15	3.63	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	6	66	298	56	38	6	20%	2.2	16.7%	13.4%	3.3%	2.2%	4.80	4.62	-0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	6	66	298	56	38	6	20%	2.2	18.8%	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	4.80	4.32	+0.2
2021	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	39	0	60	273	63	38	9	0%	1.5	20.3%	14.6%	5.7%	3.5%	4.80	5.16	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	39	0	60	273	63	38	9	0%	1.5	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.85	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	260	59	33	3	0%	1.2	21.2%	13.5%	7.6%	1.1%	3.53	3.63	+0.6
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	59	260	59	33	3	0%	1.2	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	1.2%	3.53	3.44	+0.8
2023	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	39	0	64	291	74	35	4	0%	1.6	21.9%	10.8%	11.0%	1.5%	4.38	3.46	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	39	0	64	291	74	35	4	0%	1.6	21.9%	10.8%	11.0%	1.5%	4.38	3.46	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	39	0	64	291	74	35	4	0%	1.6	25.4%	12.0%	13.4%	1.4%	4.38	3.24	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	1	29	137	20	20	4	7%	1.9	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	2.9%	5.65	5.61	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	13.6%	8.3%	3.0%	5.11	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	BAL	55	0	57	242	51	33	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.7%	7.5%	3.3%	5.15	5.23	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	BAL	49	0	51	217	44	30	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.9%	6.5%	3.6%	5.33	5.49	-0.5
2027	34	MLB CTX	BAL	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.7%	7.5%	3.3%	5.15	5.23	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.9%	6.5%	3.6%	5.33	5.49	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	1	32	152	23	22	5	6%	1.8	15.3%	14.5%	0.7%	3.0%	5.60	5.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		114	6	200	943	142	136	31	5%	1.7	15.3%	14.5%	0.7%	3.0%	5.60	5.27	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		236	64	614	2662	481	261	56	27%	2.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.1%	4.15	3.97	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	21	200	868	157	85	18	27%	2.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.1%	4.15	3.97	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Dowdy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	21.9%	13.6%	3.0%	—	5.35	20.8%	7.0%	109	+0.36	—	—	—
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	67
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	67
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	67
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	66
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	65
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	64
Jhan Mariñez R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	17.4%	11.4%	4.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	63
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	63
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	62
JC Ramírez R 2022 · 6.17 FIP	33	SU	6.17	15.7%	14.0%	4.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	61
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	61
Steve Delabar R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	33	SU	4.62	20.4%	15.6%	2.3%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	229	60
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	60
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	60
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	59
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	58
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.2%	14.0%	1.24	5.26
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52