Daniel Tillo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Tillo P Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 LHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%19.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	10	9	37	157	32	6	1	90%	3.7	13.9%	4.8%	9.1%	0.9%	4.42	3.02	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	10	9	37	157	32	6	1	90%	3.7	20.4%	3.8%	16.6%	0.6%	4.42	2.20	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	134	597	100	65	6	100%	5.2	12.7%	12.6%	0.2%	1.4%	4.76	4.41	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	134	597	100	65	6	100%	5.2	16.8%	10.9%	5.9%	1.0%	4.76	3.64	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	131	558	85	54	6	79%	4.5	11.9%	11.0%	0.8%	1.5%	3.72	4.32	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	131	558	85	54	6	79%	4.5	15.2%	9.7%	5.6%	1.1%	3.72	3.64	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	29	125	27	20	1	25%	1.4	17.5%	16.2%	1.3%	1.2%	4.03	4.35	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	29	125	27	20	1	25%	1.4	21.6%	16.0%	5.6%	0.8%	4.03	3.76	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	5	25	111	23	13	1	26%	1.3	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	0.9%	4.01	3.33	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	5	25	111	23	13	1	26%	1.3	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	0.9%	4.01	3.34	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	4	25	127	17	24	2	24%	1.5	11.5%	17.0%	-5.5%	1.6%	9.59	5.18	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	4	25	127	17	24	2	24%	1.5	11.5%	17.0%	-5.5%	1.6%	9.59	5.18	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	17	4	25	127	17	24	2	24%	1.5	13.4%	18.9%	-5.5%	1.6%	9.59	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SF	3	3	20	84	16	10	3	100%	6.7	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.02	5.10	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	SF	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.02	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	7	31	6	4	1	100%	7.4	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.02	4.72	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	109	27	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.02	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		121	72	381	1675	224	199	23	60%	3.1	13.3%	11.9%	1.5%	1.4%	4.59	4.23	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	38	200	880	117	105	12	60%	3.1	13.3%	11.9%	1.5%	1.4%	4.59	4.23	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Tillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	19.0%	11.6%	2.9%	—	5.10	19.0%	7.3%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	76
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	71
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	70
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	65
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	62
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	61
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	56
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	56
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	56
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	56
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	55
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	55
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.81	13.2%	2.4%	51	+1.87	3.76	674	55
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	55
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	55
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	54
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	53
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	53
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	53