Durbin Feltman prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Durbin Feltman P Memphis Redbirds

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 211 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%22.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	19	82	29	5	0	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	0.0%	2.33	2.36	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	19	82	29	5	0	0%	1.1	35.4%	6.1%	29.3%	0.0%	2.33	0.88	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	43	0	51	223	54	31	8	0%	1.2	19.6%	15.3%	4.3%	4.5%	5.26	5.86	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	43	0	51	223	54	31	8	0%	1.2	24.2%	13.9%	10.3%	3.6%	5.26	4.83	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	207	62	14	8	0%	1.3	25.1%	7.3%	17.8%	4.4%	2.96	4.34	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	207	62	14	8	0%	1.3	30.0%	6.8%	23.2%	3.9%	2.96	3.53	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	0	48	222	56	24	12	0%	1.2	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	6.3%	7.63	6.14	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	0	48	222	56	24	12	0%	1.2	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	5.4%	7.63	5.50	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	40	168	44	15	5	0%	1.7	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.4%	3.15	3.92	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	40	168	44	15	5	0%	1.7	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.4%	3.15	3.92	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	40	168	44	15	5	0%	1.7	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.15	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	6	0	6	30	10	4	2	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.68	—	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	6	0	6	30	10	4	2	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.68	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	STL	6	0	6	30	10	4	2	0%	1.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	6.7%	5.68	5.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	STL	20	0	20	87	19	8	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	3	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.20	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	80	27	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		169	0	217	932	208	102	39	0%	1.3	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	4.2%	4.60	4.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	859	191	94	36	0%	1.3	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	4.2%	4.60	4.92	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Durbin Feltman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.6%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.58	22.3%	12.6%	20	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	90
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	83
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	80
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	80
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	79
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	79
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	78