José Urquidy

P Charlotte Knights

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	3	3	10	6.97	4.36	17.4%	2.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 2.2% · FIP 4.29
2025	30	MIX3 levels	13	8	24	3.38	3.43	22.1%	8.4%	0.6	K 18.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.54
2026	31	MIX2 levels	33	21	132	3.89	3.54	20.0%	5.0%	3.0	K 18.0% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.76
2027PROJ	32	MLBPHI	10	10	58	4.14	4.20	18.2%	4.9%	0.8
2028PROJ	33	MLBPHI	12	12	72	4.47	4.61	17.4%	5.3%	0.8
2029PROJ	34	MLBPHI	10	10	60	4.75	4.93	16.5%	5.9%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.651First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs77

K%23

FB Velo19

Form3.12 ERA (proj 4.14) · K 15.3% (proj 18.2%) · BB 1.4% (proj 4.9%) · last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Jesus Adrian Castillo (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA4.14

FIP4.20

K%18.2%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.8	$3M	-$7M
Totals		$10M		$3M	-$7M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$10.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$4.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	6	3	21	82	25	4	0	50%	3.6	20.7%	6.1%	14.6%	0.0%	2.11	2.12	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	6	3	21	82	25	4	0	50%	3.6	30.5%	4.9%	25.6%	0.0%	2.11	1.32	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	125	519	127	24	9	88%	5.2	18.4%	5.4%	13.0%	2.1%	2.94	3.37	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	125	519	127	24	9	88%	5.2	24.5%	4.6%	19.8%	1.7%	2.94	2.58	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Buies Creek Astros	9	7	46	185	38	8	2	78%	5.1	15.8%	5.0%	10.8%	1.4%	2.35	3.17	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Buies Creek Astros	9	7	46	185	38	8	2	78%	5.1	20.5%	4.3%	16.2%	1.1%	2.35	2.53	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	25	144	593	174	28	23	86%	5.0	26.2%	4.9%	21.2%	4.4%	4.31	3.91	+2.6
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	25	144	593	174	28	23	86%	5.0	29.3%	4.7%	24.6%	3.9%	4.31	3.34	+3.6
2020	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	5	5	30	116	17	8	4	100%	5.9	14.7%	6.9%	7.8%	3.5%	2.73	4.68	+0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	5	5	30	116	17	8	4	100%	5.9	14.7%	6.9%	7.8%	3.4%	2.73	4.52	+0.3
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	123	479	110	21	19	100%	5.1	21.3%	4.5%	16.8%	4.1%	3.30	4.14	+1.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	123	479	110	21	19	100%	5.1	23.0%	4.4%	18.6%	4.0%	3.30	3.83	+2.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	29	28	164	681	134	38	29	97%	5.7	19.7%	5.6%	14.1%	4.4%	3.94	4.55	+1.6
2022	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	29	28	164	681	134	38	29	97%	5.7	19.7%	5.6%	14.1%	4.3%	3.94	4.46	+1.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	14	77	337	56	28	11	70%	3.9	16.4%	9.1%	7.3%	4.1%	5.14	5.13	+0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	14	77	337	56	28	11	70%	3.9	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%	3.3%	5.14	4.59	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	10	46	8	1	2	100%	3.4	17.4%	2.2%	15.2%	4.3%	6.97	4.29	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	10	46	8	1	2	100%	3.4	17.4%	2.2%	15.2%	4.3%	6.97	4.29	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	10	46	8	1	2	100%	3.4	17.4%	2.2%	15.2%	4.3%	6.97	4.36	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	8	24	95	21	8	2	62%	1.8	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	3.9%	3.38	4.54	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	8	24	95	21	8	2	62%	1.8	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	3.9%	3.38	4.54	+0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	8	24	95	21	8	2	62%	1.8	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	2.1%	3.38	3.43	+0.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	132	544	109	27	15	64%	4.0	18.0%	4.6%	13.4%	2.9%	3.89	3.76	+2.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	132	544	109	27	15	64%	4.0	18.0%	4.6%	13.4%	2.9%	3.89	3.76	+2.6
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	132	544	109	27	15	64%	4.0	20.0%	5.0%	15.1%	2.8%	3.89	3.54	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			94	71	444	1840	359	107	71	76%	4.7	19.5%	5.8%	13.7%	3.9%	4.08	4.29	+5.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PHI	10	10	58	245	45	12	7	100%	5.8	18.2%	4.9%	13.3%	3.0%	4.14	4.20	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	72	306	53	16	10	100%	6.0	17.4%	5.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.34	4.48	+0.8
2029	34	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	253	42	15	9	100%	6.0	16.5%	5.9%	10.6%	3.6%	4.61	4.79	+0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	53	16	11	100%	6.0	17.4%	5.3%	12.0%	3.5%	4.47	4.61	+0.8
2029	34	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	60	253	42	15	10	100%	6.0	16.5%	5.9%	10.6%	3.8%	4.75	4.93	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	93	576	2399	454	138	91	80%	5.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.2%	3.8%	4.20	4.32	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	32	200	833	158	48	32	80%	5.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.2%	3.8%	4.20	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		195	159	897	3677	728	202	128	82%	4.6	19.8%	5.5%	14.3%	3.5%	3.72	4.04	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	35	200	820	162	45	29	82%	4.6	19.8%	5.5%	14.3%	3.5%	3.72	4.04	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 96 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.94 (+0.34)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.79%	—	×0.860	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×0.900	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 17 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.54 (+0.60)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.54%	—	×0.860	18.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.872	×1.100	3.88%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 6 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.38 (+0.66)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×0.900	3.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.903	×1.100	4.51%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 9 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.25 (+0.31)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.810	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.50%	—	×1.100	2.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.322	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 5 IPFIP 2.72 → 2.82 (+0.10)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 9 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.58 (+0.95)K% 34.4% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.880	30.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.050	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷0.935	×1.100	7.35%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 70 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.70 (+0.81)K% 32.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.08%	—	×0.880	28.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.46%	—	×1.050	5.73%
HR / BF /BF	5.12%	÷0.948	×1.100	5.94%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 33 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.49 (+0.63)K% 30.1% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.810	24.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.76%	—	×1.100	4.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.067	×1.200	1.69%

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Urquidy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.62	17.0%	11.4%	132	+0.42	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	72
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	69
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	67
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	67
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	65
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	65
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	64
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	64
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	63
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	63
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	63
Aaron Brooks R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	32	SP	4.38	15.8%	7.0%	3.1%	.332	4.45	14.2%	7.5%	245	+0.07	3.71	879	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	62
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	62
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	62
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	62
Eder Llamas R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	31	SP	3.23	11.3%	6.7%	0.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	171	61
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	70	18.8%	5.7%	1.42	4.16
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Yusmeiro Petit ('21)	4.5	70	20.7%	5.5%	1.36	3.93
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Bob Lacey ('77-'84, 2 WAR*)	2.3	75	20.5%*	7.3%*	1.35*	4.11*
Max Leon ('73-'78, 2 WAR*)	1.6	62	18.3%*	7.1%*	1.26*	3.96*