Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 6 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 3.6 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 2.11 | 2.12 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 6 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 3.6 | 30.5% | 4.9% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 2.11 | 1.32 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 125 | 519 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 88% | 5.2 | 18.4% | 5.4% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 2.94 | 3.34 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 125 | 519 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 88% | 5.2 | 24.5% | 4.6% | 19.8% | 1.7% | 2.94 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 9 | 7 | 46 | 185 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 78% | 5.1 | 15.8% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 2.35 | 3.20 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 9 | 7 | 46 | 185 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 78% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 4.3% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 2.35 | 2.53 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 25 | 144 | 593 | 174 | 28 | 23 | 86% | 5.0 | 26.2% | 4.9% | 21.2% | 4.4% | 4.31 | 3.94 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 25 | 144 | 593 | 174 | 28 | 23 | 86% | 5.0 | 29.3% | 4.7% | 24.6% | 3.9% | 4.31 | 3.34 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 5 | 30 | 116 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 2.73 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 5 | 30 | 116 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.73 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 479 | 110 | 21 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.3% | 4.5% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 3.30 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 479 | 110 | 21 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 4.4% | 18.6% | 4.0% | 3.30 | 3.83 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 29 | 28 | 164 | 681 | 134 | 38 | 29 | 97% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 3.94 | 4.35 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 29 | 28 | 164 | 681 | 134 | 38 | 29 | 97% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 4.3% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 14 | 77 | 337 | 56 | 28 | 11 | 70% | 3.9 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 14 | 77 | 337 | 56 | 28 | 11 | 70% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 17.4% | 2.2% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 6.97 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 17.4% | 2.2% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 6.97 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 8 | 24 | 95 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 3.38 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 8 | 24 | 95 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.43 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 20 | 15 | 80 | 330 | 73 | 16 | 11 | 75% | 4.0 | 20.1% | 5.0% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 54 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 149 | 622 | 127 | 40 | 21 | — | — | 20.4% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.16 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 75 | 319 | 127 | 40 | 21 | — | — | 39.9% | 12.6% | 27.2% | 6.5% | 8.21 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 151 | 636 | 110 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 96 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 126 | 531 | 83 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 110 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 96 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 83 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 152 | 897 | 3754 | 678 | 286 | 144 | 90% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 151 | 64 | 32 | 90% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 153 | 845 | 3463 | 697 | 195 | 120 | 84% | 4.6 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 3.73 | 4.02 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 36 | 200 | 820 | 165 | 46 | 28 | 84% | 4.6 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 3.73 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Urquidy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | — | 5.32 | 16.5% | 7.4% | 415 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 79 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 73 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 69 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 68 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 68 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 67 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 66 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 65 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 65 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 65 |
| Mat Latos R 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 64 |
| Kameron Loe R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 63 |
| Elih Villanueva R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.43 | 14.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 225 | 63 |
| Danny Gutierrez R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .362 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 239 | 62 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 61 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 61 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 60 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 31 | SP- | 6.02 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | .306 | 4.19 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 55 | -1.83 | 3.19 | 678 | 60 |
| Chris Heston R 2024 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 131 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 1.43 | 5.05 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |