Carlos Guzman

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	35	49	3.88	4.48	24.6%	12.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.52
2025	27	MIX2 levels	40	49	3.12	3.24	28.0%	9.0%	—	K 23.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.85
2026	28	MIX2 levels	45	58	4.06	3.52	30.0%	10.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	29	MLBNYM	26	27	4.34	4.34	24.4%	10.8%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBNYM	8	8	4.45	4.52	23.9%	10.9%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDalier Hinojosa (age 29) · Coleman Huntley III (age 29) · Blake Smith (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%24.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	14	0	26	99	25	6	0	0%	1.8	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	0.0%	0.70	2.61	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	14	0	26	99	25	6	0	0%	1.8	25.3%	6.1%	19.2%	0.0%	0.70	1.85	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2019	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	7	7	33	137	27	18	3	100%	4.7	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	3.2%	2.73	5.58	—
2019	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	7	7	33	137	27	18	3	100%	4.7	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.2%	2.73	4.28	—
2021	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	22	99	445	102	46	9	96%	4.3	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.75	—
2021	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	22	99	445	102	46	9	96%	4.3	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.0%	4.65	3.62	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	107	437	90	34	11	85%	4.0	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.7%	4.11	4.96	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	107	437	90	34	11	85%	4.0	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	2.5%	4.11	3.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	87	380	93	48	9	2%	2.2	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	87	380	93	48	9	2%	2.2	24.5%	12.6%	11.8%	2.4%	4.67	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	5.5%	3.88	5.52	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	5.5%	3.88	5.52	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	3.4%	3.88	4.48	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	2.9%	3.12	3.85	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	2.9%	3.12	3.85	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.12	3.24	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	247	74	27	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	12.0%	13.3%	1.8%	4.06	3.46	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	58	247	74	27	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	12.0%	13.3%	1.8%	4.06	3.46	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	58	247	74	27	7	0%	1.3	30.0%	10.9%	19.0%	2.8%	4.06	3.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	NYM	26	0	27	114	28	12	3	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYM	24	0	25	106	25	12	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYM	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	102	26	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		232	53	508	2155	413	244	65	23%	2.2	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	3.0%	3.92	4.57	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	849	163	96	25	23%	2.2	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	3.0%	3.92	4.57	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	24.4%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.52	23.9%	13.0%	25	+0.18	—	—	—
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	71
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	71
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	71
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	70
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	70
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	70
Ryan Tepera R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	25.4%	8.5%	2.2%	.245	4.11	25.5%	16.3%	107	+0.88	2.35	445	68
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	68
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	67
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	67
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	67
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	67
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	66
Taylor Cole R 2019 · 3.49 FIP	29	SU	3.49	22.0%	8.1%	2.2%	.369	4.40	18.4%	3.7%	28	+0.91	3.49	433	66
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	66
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	65
Antonio Guzman R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SW	3.15	19.7%	10.0%	0.8%	.249	4.96	19.3%	4.6%	44	+1.81	3.15	254	65
Ryan Garton R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	24.5%	11.4%	3.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	307	65
Jeff Fulchino R 2009 · 3.36 FIP	29	SU	3.36	21.1%	7.1%	2.1%	.269	4.36	20.9%	10.9%	82	+1.00	3.36	178	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	24.2%	10.9%	1.13	4.39
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*