Sean Poppen — OGILVIE

Sean Poppen P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.04

K%18.5%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1016.0%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

FB+1.7

CH-1.1

SL-3.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	53	230	57	24	3	92%	4.4	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	1.7%	2.70	4.18	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	53	230	57	24	3	92%	4.4	24.8%	10.4%	14.3%	1.3%	2.70	3.04	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	139	585	122	25	5	100%	5.6	15.6%	5.0%	10.6%	1.1%	3.17	3.03	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	139	585	122	25	5	100%	5.6	20.9%	4.3%	16.6%	0.9%	3.17	2.35	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	128	528	123	38	14	77%	4.9	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	3.2%	3.45	4.32	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	128	528	123	38	14	77%	4.9	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	2.7%	3.45	3.49	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	16	98	433	116	49	5	67%	4.1	23.0%	11.9%	11.2%	1.2%	4.32	3.29	+1.9
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	16	98	433	116	49	5	67%	4.1	26.8%	11.3%	15.5%	1.2%	4.32	2.90	+2.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	6	0	8	35	10	4	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	11.4%	17.1%	0.0%	4.70	2.13	+0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	6	0	8	35	10	4	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	11.4%	17.1%	0.0%	4.70	2.06	+0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	57	249	63	20	4	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	1.8%	3.30	3.14	+1.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	57	249	63	20	4	0%	1.2	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	1.6%	3.30	2.86	+1.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	54	232	41	15	6	0%	1.1	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.05	+0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	54	232	41	15	6	0%	1.1	17.7%	6.5%	11.2%	2.6%	4.50	3.86	+0.4
2023	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	47	1	58	290	51	30	3	2%	1.2	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	1.1%	6.33	3.64	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	47	1	58	290	51	30	3	2%	1.2	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	1.1%	6.33	3.64	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	47	1	58	290	51	30	3	2%	1.2	17.6%	10.3%	7.2%	1.0%	6.33	3.56	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	2	0	3	16	5	2	2	0%	1.7	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	12.5%	10.80	8.91	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	2	0	3	16	5	2	2	0%	1.7	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	12.5%	10.80	8.91	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	2	0	3	16	5	2	2	0%	1.7	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	12.5%	10.80	9.70	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	30	145	38	19	3	5%	1.4	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	2.5%	5.34	4.55	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	30	145	38	19	3	5%	1.4	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	2.5%	5.34	4.55	—
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	30	145	38	19	3	5%	1.4	26.2%	13.1%	13.1%	2.1%	5.34	3.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	0	67	301	67	25	8	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.7%	5.08	3.77	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	LAA	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	18.5%	12.3%	6.2%	2.8%	5.05	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAA	48	0	50	211	38	26	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	3.1%	5.14	5.25	-0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	192	34	24	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	3.4%	5.31	5.48	-0.5
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAA	39	0	41	172	29	22	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	3.7%	5.56	5.76	-0.5
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAA	15	0	16	68	12	8	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	3.1%	5.14	5.25	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAA	11	0	12	51	9	6	2	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.7%	4.9%	3.4%	5.31	5.48	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAA	9	0	9	38	6	5	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	3.7%	5.56	5.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	0	104	457	95	45	13	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	2.9%	5.16	4.19	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	877	182	86	25	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	2.9%	5.16	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		262	74	629	2743	513	242	52	28%	2.4	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.68	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	24	200	872	163	77	17	28%	2.4	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.68	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Poppen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	18.5%	12.3%	2.8%	—	5.48	17.6%	4.9%	136	+0.44	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	74
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	71
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	70
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	70
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	70
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	69
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	69
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	68
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	66
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	66
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	66
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	66
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	65
Casey Coleman R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SW	5.06	18.4%	9.0%	4.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	306	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	17.9%	12.6%	1.26	5.24
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58