Travis Lakins

P Charlotte Knights

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	27	MIX2 levels	26	1	30	5.93	5.47	18.7%	14.2%	-0.3	K 19.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.81
2022	28	MIX4 levels	14	4	22	9.67	8.11	13.3%	15.0%	-0.9	K 16.0% · BB 12.0% · FIP 6.59
2024	30	MIX2 levels	24	0	28	5.72	2.61	31.7%	7.1%	—	K 23.9% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.48
2027PROJ	33	MLBCWS	51	0	54	4.64	4.70	22.3%	10.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCWS	3	0	3	4.82	4.97	21.5%	11.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBCWS	—	—	0	5.06	5.25	20.7%	11.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo43

Whiff%12

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32) · Tony Barnette (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.64

FIP4.70

K%22.3%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.433

FB-1.2

CT-3.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	19	18	91	418	79	36	8	95%	4.8	14.6%	9.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.93	4.79	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	19	18	91	418	79	36	8	95%	4.8	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	1.9%	5.93	3.69	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	293	62	34	4	100%	4.6	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	1.7%	4.21	4.28	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	293	62	34	4	100%	4.6	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	1.4%	4.21	3.54	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	54	223	57	18	3	17%	1.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	1.4%	2.32	3.18	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	6	54	223	57	18	3	17%	1.5	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	1.3%	2.32	2.71	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	4	68	303	60	31	5	7%	1.2	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	1.7%	4.35	3.86	+0.6
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	4	68	303	60	31	5	7%	1.2	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	1.7%	4.35	3.66	+0.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	26	116	25	13	2	0%	1.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.6%	2.81	3.55	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	26	116	25	13	2	0%	1.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.7%	2.81	3.68	+0.3
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	30	134	25	19	5	4%	1.2	19.5%	13.8%	5.7%	2.9%	5.93	4.81	-0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	30	134	25	19	5	4%	1.2	18.7%	14.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.93	5.47	-0.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	4	22	113	15	17	7	29%	1.6	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	6.0%	9.67	6.59	-0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	4	22	113	15	17	7	29%	1.6	13.3%	15.0%	-1.8%	6.2%	9.67	8.11	-0.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	23.9%	7.0%	16.9%	2.8%	5.72	3.48	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	23.9%	7.0%	16.9%	2.8%	5.72	3.48	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	31.7%	7.1%	24.6%	2.4%	5.72	2.61	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	4	87	391	75	45	10	6%	1.3	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.84	4.42	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CWS	51	0	54	228	51	24	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CWS	46	0	49	206	44	23	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.82	4.97	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	CWS	42	0	44	185	38	21	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.8%	5.06	5.25	-0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	CWS	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.82	4.97	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.8%	5.06	5.25	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	4	90	404	78	46	10	6%	1.3	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.6%	4.84	4.35	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		157	9	200	894	172	102	22	6%	1.3	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.6%	4.84	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		212	48	389	1726	311	185	42	23%	1.8	18.0%	10.7%	7.3%	2.4%	4.84	4.27	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	25	200	888	160	95	22	23%	1.8	18.0%	10.7%	7.3%	2.4%	4.84	4.27	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Lakins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.3%	10.6%	3.2%	—	5.10	21.1%	9.9%	92	+0.40	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	73
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	72
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	71
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	71
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	70
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	70
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	69
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	69
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	69
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	68
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	39	20.6%	11.3%	1.21	4.83
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*