Richard Lovelady
P
Washington Nationals
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 115
ERA4.25
FIP4.23
K%19.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
SL+0.7 (49%)
FB (51%)
SI (30%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 21 | 0 | 25 | 97 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.79 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 21 | 0 | 25 | 97 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.9% | 9.3% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.78 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 67 | 260 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.4% | 6.0% | 17.4% | 0.4% | 1.62 | 2.09 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 67 | 260 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 24.2% | 0.4% | 1.62 | 1.62 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 46 | 0 | 73 | 288 | 71 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 1.0% | 2.47 | 2.62 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 46 | 0 | 73 | 288 | 71 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 2.47 | 2.43 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 46 | 208 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 5.4% | 15.0% | 1.5% | 5.05 | 2.90 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 46 | 208 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 5.3% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 5.05 | 2.67 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | -25.0% | 25.0% | 9.00 | 19.99 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | -25.0% | 25.0% | 9.00 | 19.10 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 29 | 117 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 6.0% | 21.4% | 3.8% | 2.79 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 29 | 117 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 6.8% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 2.79 | 3.07 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 6.7% | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 6.7% | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.65 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 59 | 13 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 5.0% | 17.2% | 1.3% | 4.89 | 2.57 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 59 | 13 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 5.2% | 18.4% | 1.2% | 4.89 | 2.40 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 50 | 209 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 3.26 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 50 | 209 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 3.26 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 39 | 5 | 38 | 178 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 13% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 51 | 234 | 44 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 51 | 215 | 44 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 296 | 5 | 294 | 1277 | 249 | 121 | 41 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.41 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 3 | 200 | 868 | 169 | 82 | 28 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 362 | 7 | 419 | 1748 | 393 | 131 | 31 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.12 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 3 | 200 | 835 | 188 | 63 | 15 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.12 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Richard Lovelady (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.12 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 141 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .266 | 4.27 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.85 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .284 | 5.42 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.63 | 2.79 | 181 | 75 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 73 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 73 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 72 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 72 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 70 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 70 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 69 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 68 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 68 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 68 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 67 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 67 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 66 |
| Tyler Olson L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 3.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 263 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 1.28 | 4.84 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |