Richard Lovelady

P Washington Nationals

Age 32 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX3 levels	56	1	57	4.89	2.40	23.6%	5.2%	1.5	K 21.9% · BB 4.8% · FIP 2.55
2025	30	MIX2 levels	45	1	50	3.26	3.99	24.9%	9.1%	0.3	K 22.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.08
2026	31	MIX4 levels	43	6	40	4.24	4.86	18.2%	10.9%	-0.1	K 18.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	32	MLBWSH	29	0	30	4.79	4.88	18.8%	10.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBWSH	18	0	19	5.01	5.16	17.9%	11.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBWSH	10	0	11	5.28	5.47	17.0%	11.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%21

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsAdam Liberatore (age 31) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Jack Taschner (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA4.79

FIP4.88

K%18.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p2118.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	21	0	25	97	30	9	0	0%	1.2	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	0.0%	1.80	2.79	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	21	0	25	97	30	9	0	0%	1.2	30.9%	9.3%	21.6%	0.0%	1.80	1.78	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	67	260	77	14	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	6.0%	17.4%	0.4%	1.62	2.12	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	67	260	77	14	1	0%	1.6	29.6%	5.4%	24.2%	0.4%	1.62	1.62	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	0	73	288	71	18	3	0%	1.6	21.7%	6.6%	15.1%	1.0%	2.47	2.67	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	0	73	288	71	18	3	0%	1.6	24.7%	6.2%	18.4%	1.0%	2.47	2.43	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	46	208	46	11	3	0%	0.9	20.4%	5.4%	15.0%	1.6%	5.05	2.91	+0.9
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	46	208	46	11	3	0%	0.9	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.4%	5.05	2.67	+1.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	1	0	1	4	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	9.00	19.99	-0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	1	0	1	4	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	9.00	19.10	-0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	29	117	32	8	3	0%	1.1	27.4%	6.0%	21.4%	3.9%	2.79	3.66	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	29	117	32	8	3	0%	1.1	27.4%	6.8%	20.5%	2.6%	2.79	3.07	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	15	9	1	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	6.7%	53.3%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	15	9	1	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	6.7%	53.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.65	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	29	122	29	12	4	0%	0.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	3.4%	5.22	4.19	+0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	29	122	29	12	4	0%	0.9	23.8%	9.8%	13.9%	3.3%	5.22	4.12	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	21.9%	4.8%	17.1%	1.3%	4.89	2.55	+1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	21.9%	4.8%	17.1%	1.3%	4.89	2.55	+1.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	1.2%	4.89	2.40	+1.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.2%	3.26	4.08	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.2%	3.26	4.08	+0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	3.3%	3.26	3.99	+0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	6	40	192	35	21	6	14%	0.9	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	2.9%	4.24	4.65	-0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	6	40	192	35	21	6	14%	0.9	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	2.9%	4.24	4.65	-0.0
2026	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	6	40	192	35	21	6	14%	0.9	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	3.1%	4.24	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	6	146	656	133	58	20	4%	0.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.4%	3.0%	5.05	4.25	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	WSH	29	0	30	127	24	13	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.0%	4.79	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	85	15	9	3	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.0%	7.0%	3.3%	5.01	5.16	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	11	0	12	49	8	6	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.5%	5.6%	3.6%	5.28	5.47	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	14	9	3	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.0%	7.0%	3.3%	5.01	5.16	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	11	46	8	5	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.5%	5.6%	3.6%	5.28	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	6	176	781	155	72	24	3%	1.0	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.1%	5.06	4.30	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	7	200	889	176	82	27	3%	1.0	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.1%	5.06	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		366	8	421	1762	394	131	33	2%	1.2	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	1.8%	3.38	3.17	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	4	200	836	187	62	15	2%	1.2	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	1.8%	3.38	3.17	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 38 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.53 (+0.12)K% 26.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.860	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.55%	—	×0.900	7.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.167	×1.100	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 22 IPFIP 0.58 → 0.94 (+0.36)K% 33.0% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.860	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.06%	—	×0.900	1.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.061	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.58 → 0.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 5 IPFIP 2.72 → 2.82 (+0.10)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.28 (+0.33)K% 27.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.880	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.027	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 26 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.30 (+0.33)K% 25.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.89%	—	×0.880	22.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.46%	—	×1.050	4.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷1.023	×1.100	0.96%

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 73 IPFIP 2.38 → 2.67 (+0.29)K% 24.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.65%	—	×0.880	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.050	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.101	×1.100	1.04%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 33 IPFIP 2.21 → 2.75 (+0.55)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.28%	—	×0.810	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.30%	—	×1.100	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷1.114	×1.200	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 33 IPFIP 0.70 → 1.41 (+0.71)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.25%	—	×1.150	3.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.810	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 0.70 → 1.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Lovelady (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	18.8%	10.5%	3.0%	—	5.27	17.6%	6.5%	32	+0.39	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	77
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	76
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	75
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	74
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	73
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	72
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	72
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	69
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	68
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	68
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	2.84	187	67
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	66
Ryan Sherriff L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	32	SU	4.06	20.7%	12.4%	2.1%	.344	3.78	21.9%	10.9%	24	-0.28	2.96	245	66
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	66
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	64
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	64
Tommy Layne L 2017 · 5.32 FIP	32	SU	5.32	13.3%	14.4%	2.8%	.253	3.83	21.8%	14.4%	64	-1.49	0.55	218	64
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.25	18.1%	3.1%	36	-1.10	3.58	127	64
Jamie Walker L 2003 · 4.26 FIP	32	SU	4.26	16.5%	5.9%	3.3%	.256	3.76	17.6%	14.1%	161	-0.50	3.48	442	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	26	19.7%	10.3%	1.20	5.02
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*