Richard Lovelady

Richard Lovelady P Washington Nationals

Age 31 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 114

ERA4.26

FIP4.24

K%19.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

SL+0.7 (49%)

FB (51%)

SI (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	21	0	25	97	30	9	0	0%	1.2	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	0.0%	1.80	2.79	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	21	0	25	97	30	9	0	0%	1.2	30.9%	9.3%	21.6%	0.0%	1.80	1.78	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	67	260	77	14	1	0%	1.6	23.4%	6.0%	17.4%	0.4%	1.62	2.12	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	67	260	77	14	1	0%	1.6	29.6%	5.4%	24.2%	0.4%	1.62	1.62	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	0	73	288	71	18	3	0%	1.6	21.7%	6.6%	15.1%	1.0%	2.47	2.67	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	0	73	288	71	18	3	0%	1.6	24.7%	6.2%	18.4%	1.0%	2.47	2.43	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	46	208	46	11	3	0%	0.9	20.4%	5.4%	15.0%	1.6%	5.05	2.91	+0.9
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	46	208	46	11	3	0%	0.9	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.4%	5.05	2.67	+1.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	1	0	1	4	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	9.00	19.99	-0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	1	0	1	4	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	25.0%	9.00	19.10	-0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	29	117	32	8	3	0%	1.1	27.4%	6.0%	21.4%	3.9%	2.79	3.66	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	29	117	32	8	3	0%	1.1	27.4%	6.8%	20.5%	2.6%	2.79	3.07	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	15	9	1	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	6.7%	53.3%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	15	9	1	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	6.7%	53.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.65	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	29	122	29	12	4	0%	0.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	3.4%	5.22	4.19	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	29	122	29	12	4	0%	0.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	3.4%	5.22	4.19	+0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	29	122	29	12	4	0%	0.9	23.8%	9.8%	13.9%	3.3%	5.22	4.12	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	21.5%	4.8%	16.7%	1.3%	4.89	2.59	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	21.5%	4.8%	16.7%	1.3%	4.89	2.59	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	1	57	250	59	13	3	2%	1.0	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	1.2%	4.89	2.40	+1.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.26	4.13	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	3.26	4.13	+0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	50	209	52	19	7	2%	1.1	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	3.3%	3.26	3.99	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			151	5	141	630	129	55	19	3%	0.9	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	3.0%	5.03	4.19	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	38	5	36	166	31	18	5	13%	0.9	18.5%	11.6%	6.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.52	+0.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	38	5	36	166	31	18	5	13%	0.9	18.5%	11.6%	6.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.52	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A RAW	WSH	1	0	1	4	1	0	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%	9.00	14.71	—
2026	31	AA RAW	WSH	1	0	1	7	0	1	0	0%	1.3	0.0%	14.3%	-14.3%	0.0%	13.50	4.91	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	WSH	3	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	WSH	33	5	30	146	27	17	4	15%	0.9	18.5%	11.6%	6.8%	2.7%	3.86	4.52	+0.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	WSH	33	5	30	146	27	17	4	15%	0.9	18.5%	11.6%	6.8%	2.7%	3.86	4.52	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	WSH	4	0	4	18	4	2	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.24	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	WSH	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.26	4.24	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	40	184	35	20	6	—	—	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.06	4.49	+0.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	35	146	35	20	6	—	—	23.6%	13.4%	10.2%	3.8%	4.69	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	49	0	51	217	41	21	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.76	4.85	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	45	0	47	199	36	20	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.13	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	41	0	43	181	31	19	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.6%	6.6%	3.8%	5.25	5.43	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	47	0	49	207	39	20	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.6%	9.3%	3.2%	4.76	4.85	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	34	19	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.13	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	28	17	6	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.6%	6.6%	3.8%	5.25	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		281	5	278	1207	234	113	39	2%	1.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.99	4.41	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	4	200	868	168	81	28	2%	1.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.99	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		361	7	417	1736	387	128	32	2%	1.2	22.3%	7.4%	15.0%	1.8%	3.35	3.14	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	3	200	833	186	61	15	2%	1.2	22.3%	7.4%	15.0%	1.8%	3.35	3.14	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Lovelady (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	20.4%	8.2%	3.0%	—	5.12	18.1%	8.1%	141	+0.67	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	77
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	77
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	1.32	182	76
Marc Rzepczynski L 2017 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	18.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.284	5.47	15.5%	1.4%	67	+1.70	2.73	181	75
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	75
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	75
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	73
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	72
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	72
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	72
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	71
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	70
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	69
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	69
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	68
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	68
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	67
Tyler Olson L 2021 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	21.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	263	67
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	67
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	18.8%	9.5%	1.29	4.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78