Richard Lovelady
P
New York Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.63
FIP4.19
xFIP4.77
SIERA4.79
K%22.5%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†5050
SL+0.7 (48%)
FB (52%)
SI (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 21 | 0 | 25 | 97 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.79 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 42 | 0 | 67 | 260 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 23.4% | 6.0% | 0.4% | 1.62 | 2.11 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 46 | 0 | 73 | 288 | 71 | 18 | 3 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 2.47 | 2.67 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 49 | 0 | 46 | 208 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 20.4% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 5.05 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 27 | 0 | 29 | 117 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 27.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.79 | 3.57 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 56 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 59 | 13 | 3 | 22.2% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 4.89 | 2.53 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 45 | 1 | 50 | 209 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 3.26 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 6 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 39 | 165 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 18.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 329 | 2 | 388 | 1602 | 366 | 114 | 27 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 3.29 | 3.00 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 1 | 200 | 825 | 188 | 59 | 14 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 3.29 | 3.00 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Richard Lovelady (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.81 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 106 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 76 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .284 | 5.47 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.75 | 2.71 | 181 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 72 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 72 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 72 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.13 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 183 | 71 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 71 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 70 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 70 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 70 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 70 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 70 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 68 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 68 |
| Jeff Locke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 328 | 68 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.