Nick Vespi — OGILVIE

Nick Vespi P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA4.69

FIP5.75

K%10.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%-1.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3030

SL (25%)

CU (18%)

FB (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	17	1	24	99	25	2	1	6%	1.4	17.2%	2.5%	14.6%	1.4%	3.00	2.75	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	17	1	24	99	25	2	1	6%	1.4	25.3%	2.0%	23.2%	1.0%	3.00	1.81	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	12	10	50	198	41	7	2	83%	4.2	14.1%	4.4%	9.7%	1.4%	1.97	3.25	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	12	10	50	198	41	7	2	83%	4.2	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	1.0%	1.97	2.40	—
2017	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	9.00	8.17	—
2017	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	9.00	9.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	40	0	65	271	68	22	2	0%	1.6	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	1.1%	2.09	3.35	—
2018	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	40	0	65	271	68	22	2	0%	1.6	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	0.7%	2.09	2.42	—
2019	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	16	91	372	100	29	5	70%	4.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	1.9%	3.16	3.62	—
2019	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	23	16	91	372	100	29	5	70%	4.0	26.9%	7.8%	19.1%	1.3%	3.16	2.57	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	39	160	51	16	6	0%	1.3	26.9%	10.8%	16.2%	4.1%	4.19	4.43	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	39	160	51	16	6	0%	1.3	31.9%	10.0%	21.9%	3.8%	4.19	3.72	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	214	64	12	5	0%	1.1	27.9%	5.7%	22.2%	2.4%	1.96	2.76	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	214	64	12	5	0%	1.1	29.9%	5.6%	24.3%	2.3%	1.96	2.61	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	53	214	50	14	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	2.5%	2.87	3.52	+0.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	53	214	50	14	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	2.5%	2.87	3.52	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	53	214	50	14	5	0%	1.2	23.4%	6.5%	16.8%	2.3%	2.87	3.23	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	1.0%	6.26	3.65	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	1.0%	6.26	3.65	+0.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	55	261	60	34	3	0%	1.4	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	1.1%	6.26	3.48	+0.7
2025	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	12.3%	15.3%	-3.1%	4.0%	7.85	6.18	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	12.3%	15.3%	-3.1%	4.0%	7.85	6.18	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	20	0	18	88	13	15	3	0%	0.9	14.8%	17.0%	-2.3%	3.4%	7.85	6.26	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	0	53	220	46	11	8	0%	1.2	20.9%	5.0%	15.9%	3.6%	3.88	3.94	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	PHI	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	11.6%	-1.6%	3.0%	4.69	5.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	PHI	49	0	52	219	23	26	7	0%	1.1	10.6%	11.7%	-1.1%	3.2%	5.32	5.83	-0.7
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	46	0	48	202	22	24	7	0%	1.0	10.8%	11.9%	-1.2%	3.4%	5.67	5.98	-0.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	PHI	42	0	44	185	20	23	7	0%	1.0	10.5%	12.2%	-1.7%	3.7%	5.94	6.17	-0.8
2027	31	MLB CTX	PHI	18	0	19	80	8	9	3	0%	1.1	10.6%	11.7%	-1.1%	3.2%	5.32	5.83	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	25	0	26	110	12	13	4	0%	1.0	10.8%	11.9%	-1.2%	3.4%	5.67	5.98	-0.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	PHI	29	0	30	127	13	16	5	0%	1.0	10.5%	12.2%	-1.7%	3.7%	5.94	6.17	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	0	128	537	80	49	19	0%	1.1	14.8%	9.1%	5.7%	3.5%	4.94	4.95	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	836	125	76	30	0%	1.1	14.8%	9.1%	5.7%	3.5%	4.94	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		279	27	451	1882	378	163	37	10%	1.6	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	2.0%	3.35	3.59	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	12	200	835	168	72	17	10%	1.6	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	2.0%	3.35	3.59	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Vespi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	10.0%	11.6%	3.0%	—	5.98	10.6%	-1.3%	144	+0.23	—	—	—
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	66
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SU	5.46	8.1%	13.8%	2.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	115	64
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	63
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	153	63
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	62
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	61
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	60
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	60
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	58
Travis Wood L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	30	SW	5.48	14.9%	10.3%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	256	57
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	55
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	54
Darien Núñez L 2023 · 6.14 FIP	30	SU	6.14	16.8%	22.2%	3.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	122	53
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	53
Lucas Luetge L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	30	SU	4.96	20.6%	8.9%	4.5%	.352	2.91	22.7%	15.4%	68	-2.05	2.53	430	52
James Russell L 2016 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	12.4%	5.7%	3.7%	.286	3.86	16.8%	13.2%	119	-0.94	2.66	233	52
Fabian Williamson L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SU	4.78	20.5%	21.1%	1.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	154	52
Josh Smoker L 2019 · 6.58 FIP	30	SU	6.58	14.2%	10.8%	6.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	230	52
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	10.5%	11.9%	1.28	5.36
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44