Nick Vespi
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134144vR 153
ERA4.79
FIP5.98
K%10.0%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%-3.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (25%)
CU (18%)
FB (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 17 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.2% | 2.5% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 3.00 | 2.75 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 17 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 6% | 1.4 | 25.3% | 2.0% | 23.2% | 1.0% | 3.00 | 1.81 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 12 | 10 | 50 | 198 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 83% | 4.2 | 14.1% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 1.97 | 3.25 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 12 | 10 | 50 | 198 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 83% | 4.2 | 20.7% | 3.5% | 17.2% | 1.0% | 1.97 | 2.40 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 8.17 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 9.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 40 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 68 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 2.09 | 3.45 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 40 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 68 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 0.7% | 2.09 | 2.42 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 16 | 91 | 372 | 100 | 29 | 5 | 70% | 4.0 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 3.70 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 16 | 91 | 372 | 100 | 29 | 5 | 70% | 4.0 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 19.1% | 1.3% | 3.16 | 2.57 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 39 | 160 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 4.19 | 4.41 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 39 | 160 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.9% | 10.0% | 21.9% | 3.8% | 4.19 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 214 | 64 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 5.7% | 22.2% | 2.2% | 1.96 | 2.66 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 214 | 64 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 5.6% | 24.3% | 2.3% | 1.96 | 2.61 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 53 | 214 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 2.87 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 53 | 214 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 2.3% | 2.87 | 3.23 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 55 | 261 | 60 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 6.26 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 55 | 261 | 60 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 6.26 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 20 | 0 | 18 | 88 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 13.0% | 17.9% | -4.9% | 4.2% | 7.85 | 6.57 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 20 | 0 | 18 | 88 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.8% | 17.0% | -2.3% | 3.4% | 7.85 | 6.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 23 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 13.4% | -3.4% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 23 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.6% | 13.3% | -2.7% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 22 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.8% | 13.4% | -2.7% | 3.5% | 5.84 | 6.17 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 20 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 13.7% | -3.1% | 3.7% | 6.12 | 6.36 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.6% | 13.3% | -2.7% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 6.05 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.8% | 13.4% | -2.7% | 3.5% | 5.84 | 6.17 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 13.7% | -3.1% | 3.7% | 6.12 | 6.36 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 0 | 128 | 537 | 80 | 54 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.07 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 836 | 125 | 84 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 279 | 27 | 451 | 1882 | 384 | 173 | 38 | 10% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.35 | 3.65 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 12 | 200 | 835 | 170 | 77 | 17 | 10% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.35 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Vespi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.98 | 10.0% | 13.4% | 3.0% | — | 6.18 | 10.6% | -2.8% | 144 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 13.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 134 | 67 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 8.1% | 13.8% | 2.0% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 115 | 65 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 63 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 61 |
| Greg Nappo L 2024 · 6.48 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.48 | 12.3% | 12.6% | 5.1% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 144 | 59 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 58 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.72 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 256 | 57 |
| Braulio Lara L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 56 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.14 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 299 | 56 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 55 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 6.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.44 | 17.9% | 25.9% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 122 | 54 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 52 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 6.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.37 | 14.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 230 | 52 |
| Jordan Carr L 2025 · 7.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 7.18 | 11.4% | 15.1% | 5.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 261 | 52 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2028 · 5.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.24 | 20.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 218 | 50 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 16.1% | 28.0% | 0.0% | .364 | 4.87 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 32 | -0.41 | 2.79 | 159 | 50 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 6.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.63 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 179 | 49 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 49 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 48 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.42 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | .352 | 2.86 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 68 | -2.56 | 2.52 | 430 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 10.5% | 13.4% | 1.29 | 5.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |