Daniel Lynch IV

P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	37	24	163	3.49	3.98	20.1%	6.9%	1.8	K 18.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.14
2025	28	MIX3 levels	59	2	70	3.20	4.29	16.3%	8.7%	0.2	K 15.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.52
2026	29	MLBKC	56	10	86	4.08	4.37	15.7%	7.3%	0.2
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	66	0	69	4.48	4.78	16.8%	7.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ	31	MLBKC	61	0	64	4.80	5.01	16.0%	8.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ	32	MLBKC	56	0	59	5.08	5.27	15.2%	8.4%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo50

xwOBA vs35

Whiff%27

K%10

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Mike Montgomery (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.48

FIP4.78

K%16.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

CH+2.4 (24%)

SL+1.7 (19%)

SI (33%)

CU (9%)

FB-0.7 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	22.7%	4.6%	18.1%	0.8%	1.58	2.21	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	30.5%	4.0%	26.5%	0.5%	1.58	1.44	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	1.7%	2.89	3.54	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	1.1%	2.89	2.55	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.76	4.56	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	3.3%	5.76	4.38	+0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.8%	5.06	4.52	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.3%	5.06	4.34	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	16.2%	6.4%	9.8%	4.3%	4.34	4.93	-0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	18.3%	6.6%	11.7%	4.1%	4.34	4.65	+0.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.14	+1.5
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.14	+1.5
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	3.1%	3.49	3.98	+1.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	16.3%	8.7%	7.7%	2.7%	3.20	4.29	+0.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.3%	4.08	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.3%	4.08	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.08	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			180	66	449	1953	351	162	64	37%	2.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.47	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	66	0	69	291	49	22	9	0%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.2%	4.48	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	271	43	22	9	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.80	5.01	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	59	250	38	21	9	0%	1.1	15.2%	8.4%	6.8%	3.7%	5.08	5.27	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	61	0	64	270	43	22	9	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.80	5.01	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	38	21	9	0%	1.1	15.2%	8.4%	6.8%	3.7%	5.08	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		298	66	572	2474	432	205	82	22%	1.9	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.50	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		104	23	200	864	151	72	29	22%	1.9	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		253	136	796	3399	623	256	108	54%	3.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.05	4.25	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	34	200	854	157	64	27	54%	3.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.05	4.25	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Lynch IV (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	16.8%	7.6%	3.2%	—	5.13	15.6%	7.4%	123	+0.35	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	63
Mike Montgomery L 2019 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	17.2%	8.2%	4.8%	.337	4.80	15.6%	4.4%	86	-0.55	3.43	764	63
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	62
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	61
John Halama L 2002 · 3.69 FIP	30	SW	3.69	16.0%	6.4%	2.1%	.311	4.59	11.3%	5.8%	292	+0.90	3.01	911	60
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	60
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	59
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	58
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	57
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	56
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	56
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	56
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	56
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	55
Cesár Ramos L 2014 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	18.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.256	4.24	16.7%	9.0%	225	+0.31	2.56	463	55
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	55
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	55
Ron Villone L 2000 · 5.44 FIP	30	SP-	5.44	12.0%	11.7%	3.4%	.281	4.35	18.9%	9.6%	314	-1.09	3.26	1,168	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	17.4%	8.3%	1.28	4.56
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Carlos Reyes ('03)	2.8	70	14.8%	9.0%	1.39	4.66
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*