Matt Frisbee

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	AASF	27	26	140	5.16	4.17	21.6%	6.2%	—	K 17.5% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.16
2023	26	MIX2 levels	32	0	48	5.10	5.20	17.7%	9.1%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 6.52
2024	27	MIX2 levels	14	9	43	4.57	3.52	23.1%	11.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	30	MLBSF	4	4	22	4.69	4.69	21.6%	11.2%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBSF	1	1	7	4.77	4.85	21.4%	11.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	132	536	154	28	15	85%	5.1	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	3.6%	3.13	4.00	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	132	536	154	28	15	85%	5.1	28.7%	5.2%	23.5%	2.8%	3.13	2.88	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	113	488	111	28	27	91%	5.1	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	6.6%	5.59	5.86	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	113	488	111	28	27	91%	5.1	22.7%	5.7%	17.0%	5.5%	5.59	4.99	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	27	26	140	611	132	38	23	96%	5.2	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	4.9%	5.16	5.16	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	27	26	140	611	132	38	23	96%	5.2	21.6%	6.2%	15.4%	3.8%	5.16	4.17	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	209	37	19	9	0%	1.5	14.2%	9.6%	4.6%	6.2%	5.10	6.52	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	48	209	37	19	9	0%	1.5	17.7%	9.1%	8.6%	4.3%	5.10	5.20	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	43	195	45	23	3	64%	3.1	18.3%	14.3%	4.0%	1.9%	4.57	4.42	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	43	195	45	23	3	64%	3.1	18.3%	14.3%	4.0%	1.9%	4.57	4.42	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	43	195	45	23	3	64%	3.1	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	1.5%	4.57	3.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SF	4	4	22	93	20	10	3	100%	5.5	21.6%	11.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SF	3	3	21	88	19	10	3	100%	6.9	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.85	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	SF	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	7	27	6	3	1	100%	6.5	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	184	92	31	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.77	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		121	77	476	2039	383	152	98	64%	3.9	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	4.8%	4.64	5.09	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	32	200	857	161	64	41	64%	3.9	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	4.8%	4.64	5.09	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Frisbee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.6%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.4%	10.1%	21	+0.16	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	69
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	69
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	67
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	66
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	65
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	65
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	65
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	64
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	64
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	62
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	61
Bryan Brickhouse R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP-	4.78	18.8%	11.7%	3.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	214	60
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	59
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	59
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	59
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	59