Jarod Bayless — OGILVIE

Jarod Bayless P Altoona Curve

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%17.5%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	8	0	16	58	21	1	0	0%	2.0	24.6%	2.2%	22.5%	0.0%	0.57	1.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	8	0	16	58	21	1	0	0%	2.0	36.2%	1.7%	34.5%	0.0%	0.57	0.61	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	24	99	33	7	3	0%	1.2	25.7%	8.1%	17.5%	3.5%	4.18	3.89	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	20	0	24	99	33	7	3	0%	1.2	33.3%	7.1%	26.3%	3.0%	4.18	2.85	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	177	48	18	12	0%	1.3	21.4%	12.0%	9.4%	7.0%	7.65	6.66	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	38	177	48	18	12	0%	1.3	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	6.8%	7.65	6.13	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	49	190	62	7	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.0%	22.0%	1.6%	3.14	2.25	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	49	190	62	7	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.0%	22.0%	1.6%	3.14	2.25	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	49	190	62	7	4	0%	1.2	32.6%	3.7%	28.9%	2.1%	3.14	2.05	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	11.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.0%	4.76	5.42	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	11.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.0%	4.76	5.42	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	19	0	23	111	16	9	3	0%	1.2	14.4%	8.1%	6.3%	2.7%	4.76	4.60	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	18.9%	5.1%	13.8%	4.2%	3.97	4.48	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	18.9%	5.1%	13.8%	4.2%	3.97	4.48	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	12	77	325	77	16	11	32%	2.1	23.7%	4.9%	18.8%	3.4%	3.97	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	24	1	45	192	40	9	4	4%	1.9	17.2%	5.2%	12.1%	2.4%	4.37	3.64	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	24	1	45	192	40	9	4	4%	1.9	17.2%	5.2%	12.1%	2.4%	4.37	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A RAW	PIT	2	0	2	8	1	0	0	0%	1.1	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%	3.86	2.04	—
2026	29	AA RAW	PIT	16	0	30	123	33	7	1	0%	1.9	26.8%	5.7%	21.1%	0.8%	2.67	2.00	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	PIT	6	1	13	61	6	2	3	17%	2.1	9.8%	3.3%	6.6%	4.9%	8.53	5.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PIT	35	0	37	155	28	10	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	PIT	11	0	12	51	9	3	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	9	3	2	0%	1.0	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	52	35	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.65	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		177	13	271	1152	232	73	42	7%	1.5	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.19	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	10	200	851	172	54	31	7%	1.5	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.19	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarod Bayless (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	17.5%	5.9%	3.3%	—	4.72	17.8%	11.3%	37	+0.15	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	82
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	80
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	79
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	79
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	79
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	78
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	78
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	78
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	78
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	77
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	17.6%	6.2%	1.32	4.61
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38