Jarod Bayless
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%12.5%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 8 | 0 | 16 | 58 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 24.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.57 | 1.29 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 20 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 0 | 38 | 177 | 48 | 18 | 12 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 7.65 | 6.54 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 40 | 0 | 49 | 190 | 62 | 7 | 4 | 25.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 3.14 | 2.25 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 19 | 0 | 23 | 111 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 11.7% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 5.48 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 37 | 12 | 77 | 325 | 77 | 16 | 11 | 19.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.97 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 3 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 47 | 17 | 8 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 62 | 267 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 46 | 17 | 8 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 44 | 17 | 8 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 42 | 17 | 7 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 156 | 12 | 232 | 991 | 205 | 67 | 37 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.39 | 4.23 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 10 | 200 | 856 | 177 | 58 | 32 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.39 | 4.23 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jarod Bayless (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.65 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 157 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 90 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 89 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 84 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 84 |
| Rob Wooten R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 84 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 83 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 83 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 83 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 82 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 81 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 81 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.