Bailey Falter

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 30 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	29	29	145	4.46	4.17	16.6%	7.5%	1.2	K 16.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.39
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	26	128	4.37	4.85	16.1%	9.3%	0.1	K 15.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.08
2026	29	MIX2 levels	32	10	68	4.12	3.48	22.6%	9.3%	0.9	K 19.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.64
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	13	13	77	4.83	4.92	16.6%	8.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ	31	MLBATL	12	12	72	5.02	5.15	15.8%	8.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ	32	MLBATL	11	11	66	5.25	5.41	15.0%	9.3%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo19

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRoy Merritt (age 30) · Brian Johnson (age 30) · Tyler Anderson (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.83

FIP4.92

K%16.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p1011.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.386

SI (2%)

CU (8%)

CT (26%)

FB-3.5 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	14.9%	3.3%	11.6%	2.5%	3.45	3.61	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	21.9%	2.6%	19.3%	1.8%	3.45	2.58	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	2.3%	2.99	3.68	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	22.2%	4.9%	17.3%	1.5%	2.99	2.66	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	1.7%	2.74	3.16	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	23.5%	3.7%	19.8%	1.7%	2.74	2.55	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	15.7%	5.2%	10.6%	2.9%	3.84	4.00	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	2.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	28.1%	5.6%	22.5%	3.1%	3.78	3.15	+1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	3.1%	3.78	2.94	+1.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	22.6%	4.5%	18.1%	3.7%	3.16	3.79	+1.7
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.9%	3.16	3.73	+1.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	16.4%	7.3%	9.2%	4.7%	4.82	5.22	-0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	17.4%	7.7%	9.7%	4.3%	4.82	4.99	-0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.17	+1.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	-0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	-0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	16.1%	9.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.37	4.85	+0.1
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.12	3.64	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.12	3.64	+0.7
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.0%	4.12	3.48	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	85	479	2011	354	140	78	70%	4.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	3.9%	4.73	4.62	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ATL	13	13	77	325	54	28	10	100%	5.9	16.6%	8.6%	8.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	72	303	48	27	10	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.15	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	66	280	42	26	10	100%	6.0	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	3.7%	5.25	5.41	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	72	304	48	27	10	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.15	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	66	279	42	26	10	100%	6.0	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	3.7%	5.25	5.41	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	108	617	2595	444	193	99	75%	4.3	17.1%	7.4%	9.7%	3.8%	4.82	4.68	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	35	200	841	144	63	32	75%	4.3	17.1%	7.4%	9.7%	3.8%	4.82	4.68	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		240	184	989	4084	738	263	129	77%	4.1	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	3.2%	3.83	4.13	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	826	149	53	26	77%	4.1	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	3.2%	3.83	4.13	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Falter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	16.6%	8.6%	3.2%	—	5.27	15.4%	6.3%	138	+0.35	—	—	—
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	62
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	59
Tyler Anderson L 2020 · 4.13 FIP	30	SP	4.13	15.8%	9.6%	2.1%	.280	3.91	19.2%	12.8%	487	-0.22	3.10	1,288	58
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	58
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	55
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	54
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	53
Eric Stults L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	14.8%	10.8%	1.4%	.294	4.00	13.3%	6.9%	111	+0.05	3.50	773	52
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	51
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	51
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	50
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	50
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	50
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	50
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	49
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	49
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	49
J.A. Happ L 2013 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP	4.23	18.6%	10.8%	2.4%	.286	3.79	20.5%	13.5%	525	-0.44	3.37	1,890	48
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	48
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	87	17.0%	7.6%	1.44	4.82
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03