Triston McKenzie

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	29	26	129	5.16	5.89	22.5%	14.0%	-1.4	K 21.1% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.81
2025	27	MIX3 levels	20	5	27	8.00	6.17	25.4%	27.5%	-0.5	K 20.9% · BB 26.9% · FIP 6.45
2026	28	AAASD	14	3	16	15.98	10.94	20.0%	36.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 32.7% · FIP 7.99
2027PROJ	29	MLBSD	27	27	163	5.70	6.41	18.9%	20.0%	-2.6
2028PROJ	30	MLBSD	26	26	153	6.25	6.62	18.2%	20.3%	-2.8
2029PROJ	31	MLBSD	24	24	143	6.61	6.85	17.4%	20.6%	-3.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -8.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control43Command48FB velo55

CompsTim Adleman (age 29) · Samuel Deduno (age 29) · David Fletcher (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155147vR 139

ERA5.70

FIP6.41

K%18.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP163

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4550

K†4545

CU (13%)

SL-1.4 (7%)

FB-1.8 (80%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	4	3	12	43	17	3	0	75%	3.0	39.5%	7.0%	32.6%	0.0%	0.75	0.65	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	4	3	12	43	17	3	0	75%	3.0	39.5%	7.0%	32.6%	0.0%	0.75	1.02	—
2016	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	6	6	34	133	49	6	2	100%	5.7	27.3%	5.3%	21.9%	1.5%	3.18	2.31	—
2016	18	A RAW	Lake County Captains	6	6	34	133	49	6	2	100%	5.7	36.8%	4.5%	32.3%	1.5%	3.18	1.51	—
2017	19	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	143	568	186	43	14	100%	5.7	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	3.4%	3.46	3.95	—
2017	19	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	143	568	186	43	14	100%	5.7	32.7%	7.6%	25.2%	2.5%	3.46	2.67	—
2018	20	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	91	362	87	28	8	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.2%	2.68	4.27	—
2018	20	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	91	362	87	28	8	100%	5.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.2%	2.68	3.25	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	8	6	33	127	42	9	6	75%	4.2	33.1%	7.1%	26.0%	4.7%	3.24	3.80	+0.4
2020	22	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	8	6	33	127	42	9	6	75%	4.2	33.1%	7.1%	26.0%	4.7%	3.24	3.73	+0.5
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	141	586	159	70	26	97%	4.7	26.7%	12.0%	14.6%	4.5%	4.65	4.84	+0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	141	586	159	70	26	97%	4.7	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	4.4%	4.65	4.73	+0.3
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	191	741	190	44	25	97%	6.2	25.6%	5.9%	19.7%	3.4%	2.96	3.54	+3.2
2022	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	191	741	190	44	25	97%	6.2	25.6%	5.9%	19.7%	3.4%	2.96	3.50	+3.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	33	140	35	19	6	100%	3.7	22.4%	13.6%	8.8%	4.9%	4.91	5.61	-0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	33	140	35	19	6	100%	3.7	25.0%	13.6%	11.4%	4.3%	4.91	5.07	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	5.1%	5.16	5.81	-1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	5.1%	5.16	5.81	-1.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	5.0%	5.16	5.89	-1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	20.9%	26.9%	-6.0%	3.1%	8.00	6.45	-0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	20.9%	26.9%	-6.0%	3.1%	8.00	6.45	-0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	25.4%	27.5%	-2.2%	2.2%	8.00	6.17	-0.5
2026	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	17.2%	32.7%	-15.5%	4.0%	15.98	7.99	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	17.2%	32.7%	-15.5%	4.0%	15.98	7.99	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	20.0%	36.4%	-16.4%	3.6%	15.98	10.94	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	80	442	1806	462	179	73	91%	5.0	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	4.0%	4.07	4.37	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	27	27	163	688	130	138	25	100%	6.0	18.9%	20.0%	-1.1%	3.6%	5.70	6.41	-2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	26	26	153	646	118	131	25	100%	5.9	18.2%	20.3%	-2.1%	3.8%	6.25	6.62	-2.8
2029	31	MLB MLE	SD	24	24	143	603	105	124	24	100%	5.9	17.4%	20.6%	-3.2%	4.1%	6.61	6.85	-3.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	26	26	153	646	118	131	25	100%	5.9	18.2%	20.3%	-2.1%	3.8%	6.25	6.62	-2.8
2029	31	MLB CTX	SD	24	24	143	604	105	125	24	100%	6.0	17.4%	20.6%	-3.2%	4.1%	6.61	6.85	-3.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	129	738	3055	685	435	122	94%	5.4	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	4.0%	5.01	5.21	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	828	186	118	33	94%	5.4	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	4.0%	5.01	5.21	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		192	158	851	3526	857	384	135	82%	4.4	24.3%	10.9%	13.4%	3.8%	4.10	4.53	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	829	201	90	32	82%	4.4	24.3%	10.9%	13.4%	3.8%	4.10	4.53	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Triston McKenzie (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.41	18.9%	20.0%	3.6%	—	6.73	17.8%	-2.6%	296	+0.32	—	—	—
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	58
Samuel Deduno R 2012 · 5.22 FIP	29	SP	5.22	16.4%	15.3%	2.9%	.260	3.94	16.6%	7.2%	230	-1.28	2.99	327	57
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	55
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	53
Adrian Sampson R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	29	SP-	5.78	16.1%	8.2%	5.5%	.271	4.53	16.2%	9.4%	293	-1.25	3.23	1,012	49
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	48
Tim Melville R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	29	SP	5.65	18.2%	9.2%	5.3%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	471	48
Cody Martin R 2018 · 5.88 FIP	28	SP	5.88	16.3%	10.3%	5.2%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	402	46
Philip Humber R 2012 · 5.41 FIP	29	SP-	5.41	18.4%	9.3%	4.9%	.289	4.82	13.9%	6.6%	55	-0.59	2.97	362	46
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	46
Greg Ross R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	10.6%	8.4%	3.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	357	46
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	45
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	45
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	43
Jake Buchanan R 2019 · 6.13 FIP	29	SP	6.13	13.7%	8.0%	5.8%	.321	5.19	16.7%	9.5%	43	-0.94	3.30	681	43
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	43
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	42
Nick Tepesch R 2018 · 5.56 FIP	29	SP-	5.56	10.1%	8.0%	4.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	495	42
Reid Cornelius R 2000 · 5.30 FIP	30	SP	5.30	9.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	211	41
Zach Lee R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	29	SP-	5.60	14.5%	9.3%	4.6%	.308	4.10	20.2%	10.5%	61	-1.50	3.10	738	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	129	21.7%	15.4%	1.52	5.14
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44