Jorge Alcala

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	63	69	3.00	3.78	26.6%	9.4%	0.6	K 24.7% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.90
2025	30	MLBSTL	56	55	6.22	5.54	23.7%	11.3%	-0.6
2026	31	MIX2 levels	12	15	5.40	3.30	24.3%	11.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.07
2027PROJ	32	MLBTOR	63	66	4.63	4.78	24.6%	10.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBTOR	21	22	4.89	5.06	23.8%	11.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBTOR	17	18	5.17	5.36	22.9%	11.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo90

K%58

Whiff%53

xwOBA vs37

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Jumbo Diaz (age 32) · Austin Adams (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.78

K%24.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5823.7%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SI (13%)

CU (23%)

CH-2.6 (2%)

SL-5.2 (16%)

FB-6.9 (59%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	2	32	142	20	19	0	17%	2.7	9.6%	16.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	3.06	4.41	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	12	2	32	142	20	19	0	17%	2.7	14.1%	13.4%	0.7%	0.0%	3.06	3.63	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	12	7	42	164	55	14	0	58%	3.5	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	0.0%	1.49	2.53	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	12	7	42	164	55	14	0	58%	3.5	33.5%	8.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.49	1.49	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	109	438	95	44	10	82%	5.0	16.5%	11.6%	4.8%	2.8%	3.05	4.70	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	109	438	95	44	10	82%	5.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.6%	2.3%	3.05	3.76	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	99	425	104	49	7	67%	4.1	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.1%	3.81	4.23	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	99	425	104	49	7	67%	4.1	24.5%	11.5%	12.9%	1.6%	3.81	3.40	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	16	112	485	117	38	12	48%	3.4	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	5.38	4.34	+0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	16	112	485	117	38	12	48%	3.4	24.1%	7.8%	16.3%	2.5%	5.38	3.42	+1.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	16	0	24	94	27	8	3	0%	1.5	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	3.2%	2.62	3.50	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	16	0	24	94	27	8	3	0%	1.5	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	3.2%	2.62	3.48	+0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	60	229	61	12	10	0%	1.0	26.6%	5.2%	21.4%	4.3%	3.92	3.90	+0.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	60	229	61	12	10	0%	1.0	26.6%	5.2%	21.4%	4.4%	3.92	3.84	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	16	3	2	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	3	16	3	2	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	28	118	32	15	7	0%	1.4	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	6.6%	4.82	6.63	-0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	28	118	32	15	7	0%	1.4	27.1%	12.7%	14.4%	5.9%	4.82	5.67	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.4%	3.00	3.90	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	3.4%	3.00	3.90	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	69	278	74	26	9	0%	1.1	26.6%	9.4%	17.3%	3.2%	3.00	3.78	+0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.4%	6.22	5.51	-0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.4%	6.22	5.51	-0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	56	0	55	257	61	29	13	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.5%	5.1%	6.22	5.54	-0.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	70	17	8	1	0%	1.2	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	1.9%	5.40	4.07	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	70	17	8	1	0%	1.2	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	1.9%	5.40	4.07	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	70	17	8	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	1.4%	5.40	3.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			200	0	218	907	226	81	39	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	4.3%	4.29	4.46	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TOR	63	0	66	279	69	30	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.63	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TOR	57	0	60	254	60	29	10	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.4%	3.9%	4.89	5.06	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	231	53	27	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	4.2%	5.17	5.36	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	TOR	21	0	22	93	22	11	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.3%	12.4%	3.9%	4.89	5.06	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TOR	17	0	18	76	17	9	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	4.2%	5.17	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	0	258	1075	265	100	46	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	4.3%	4.40	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	833	205	77	36	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	4.3%	4.40	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		332	59	649	2716	556	286	82	18%	2.0	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	3.91	4.36	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	18	200	837	171	88	25	18%	2.0	20.5%	10.5%	9.9%	3.0%	3.91	4.36	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Alcala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	24.6%	10.9%	3.6%	—	5.20	23.4%	11.8%	115	+0.42	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	77
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	76
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	70
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	69
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	68
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	67
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	66
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	66
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	66
Steve Delabar R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	32	SU	3.74	25.0%	9.9%	2.7%	.246	4.62	20.4%	4.8%	24	+0.88	2.43	229	66
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	66
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	66
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	66
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	57	24.4%	10.2%	1.59	4.56
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*