Justin King

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAMIA	36	37	6.08	2.40	36.5%	10.7%	—	K 29.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.26
2025	27	MIX2 levels	31	33	3.55	4.04	25.9%	18.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.46
2026	28	MIX2 levels	39	47	5.17	3.27	31.1%	18.0%	—	K 24.4% · BB 17.5% · FIP 3.93
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	19	20	4.87	4.87	23.9%	16.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBMIA	7	7	4.92	5.00	23.5%	16.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsStephen Randolph (age 29) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Keith Hessler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%23.9%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	8	40	11	5	0	0%	0.8	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	0.0%	5.40	2.36	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	8	40	11	5	0	0%	0.8	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	0.0%	5.40	2.26	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	0	31	140	54	24	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	19.7%	10.0%	0.9%	2.93	3.56	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	0	31	140	54	24	1	0%	1.1	38.6%	17.1%	21.4%	0.7%	2.93	2.35	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	11.8%	17.8%	2.1%	6.08	3.26	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	11.8%	17.8%	2.1%	6.08	3.26	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	36.5%	10.7%	25.8%	1.9%	6.08	2.40	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	20.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	3.55	4.46	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	20.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	3.55	4.46	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	25.9%	18.4%	7.6%	1.3%	3.55	4.04	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	47	222	69	40	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	17.5%	6.9%	1.2%	5.17	3.93	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	47	222	69	40	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	17.5%	6.9%	1.2%	5.17	3.93	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	47	222	69	40	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	18.0%	13.1%	0.9%	5.17	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	14	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	16.4%	7.4%	2.4%	4.87	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	14	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	16.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	5.00	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	7	0	7	30	7	5	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	16.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	16.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	136	27	0%	1.1	23.5%	16.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		144	0	156	719	185	123	9	0%	1.1	25.8%	17.0%	8.7%	1.2%	4.62	3.74	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	0	200	922	237	157	11	0%	1.1	25.8%	17.0%	8.7%	1.2%	4.62	3.74	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	23.9%	16.4%	2.4%	—	5.00	23.5%	7.5%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	79
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	75
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	74
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	74
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	73
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	73
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	72
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	2.84	187	71
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	70
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	70
Jack Taschner L 2007 · 3.69 FIP	29	SU	3.69	23.0%	12.2%	1.8%	.286	4.41	16.2%	5.2%	97	+0.72	3.14	189	70
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	70
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	69
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	69
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	69
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	69
Anthony Gose L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	19.2%	22.5%	0.0%	.250	4.70	30.1%	12.6%	54	+0.37	3.78	233	68
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	67
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	67