Anderson Espinoza
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 105
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
K%21.3%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
FB-0.8
CH-0.8
SL-1.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 58 | 233 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 2.36 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 58 | 233 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 27.9% | 6.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 1.59 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 24 | 108 | 464 | 100 | 35 | 3 | 96% | 4.3 | 15.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 1.1% | 4.49 | 3.47 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 24 | 108 | 464 | 100 | 35 | 3 | 96% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 0.6% | 4.49 | 2.58 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 32 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 32 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 31.9% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 1.6% | 4.19 | 2.89 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 89 | 402 | 97 | 60 | 21 | 64% | 3.2 | 20.9% | 15.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.11 | 6.54 | -1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 89 | 402 | 97 | 60 | 21 | 64% | 3.2 | 24.1% | 14.9% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 7.11 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 28 | 132 | 607 | 117 | 73 | 17 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 28 | 132 | 607 | 117 | 73 | 17 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.3% | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 4.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 81 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 76 | 37 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 69 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 13 | 94 | 407 | 85 | 49 | 14 | 65% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.82 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 27 | 200 | 861 | 180 | 104 | 30 | 64% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 105 | 445 | 1957 | 368 | 234 | 51 | 91% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 4.46 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 47 | 200 | 880 | 165 | 105 | 23 | 91% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anderson Espinoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.82 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 167 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 76 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 75 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 72 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 71 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 71 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 71 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 71 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 70 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .251 | 4.23 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.67 | 2.82 | 536 | 70 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 70 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 70 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 69 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 69 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 69 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 69 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 69 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 86 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 1.21 | 4.70 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |