Anderson Espinoza
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.9
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP5.60
SIERA5.23
K%21.3%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.0%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
FB-0.8
CH-0.8
SL-1.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | A | Greenville Drive | 15 | 15 | 58 | 233 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 2.36 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 24 | 108 | 464 | 100 | 35 | 3 | 15.9% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 4.49 | 3.41 | +2.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 20 | 20 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 32 | 4 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 18 | 89 | 402 | 97 | 60 | 21 | 20.9% | 15.8% | 5.9% | 7.11 | 6.60 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 28 | 132 | 607 | 117 | 73 | 17 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 6.15 | 4.90 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 108 | 52 | 15 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 104 | 50 | 15 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 98 | 48 | 15 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 92 | 47 | 15 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 86 | 45 | 14 | 19.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 80 | 44 | 14 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 73 | 43 | 14 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 66 | 41 | 13 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 59 | 39 | 13 | 16.5% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 105 | 445 | 1957 | 368 | 234 | 52 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 4.48 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 47 | 200 | 880 | 165 | 105 | 23 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anderson Espinoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.74 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 341 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 82 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 81 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 79 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 79 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 78 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 77 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 76 |
| Brett Sears R 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 76 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 76 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.77 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .336 | 2.72 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -1.05 | 2.48 | 642 | 76 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 75 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .251 | 4.24 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.53 | 2.78 | 536 | 75 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 75 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.22 | 3.49 | 433 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.