Malvin Pena prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Malvin Pena P Harrisburg Senators

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%20.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	2	2	6	32	5	7	0	100%	3.2	15.6%	21.9%	-6.2%	0.0%	11.37	4.55	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	2	2	6	32	5	7	0	100%	3.2	15.6%	21.9%	-6.2%	0.0%	11.37	4.84	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	10	7	41	187	39	18	7	70%	4.1	14.2%	12.0%	2.1%	5.2%	5.44	6.30	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	10	7	41	187	39	18	7	70%	4.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.2%	3.7%	5.44	4.72	—
2018	21	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	6	6	30	133	27	4	1	100%	5.0	15.0%	3.5%	11.5%	0.9%	3.60	2.77	—
2018	21	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	6	6	30	133	27	4	1	100%	5.0	20.3%	3.0%	17.3%	0.8%	3.60	2.13	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	23	23	107	477	87	38	20	100%	4.7	14.0%	9.2%	4.9%	5.3%	6.20	5.99	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	23	23	107	477	87	38	20	100%	4.7	18.2%	8.0%	10.3%	4.2%	6.20	4.96	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	53	247	39	27	9	0%	1.8	12.5%	12.2%	0.3%	3.1%	5.81	5.28	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	53	247	39	27	9	0%	1.8	15.8%	10.9%	4.9%	3.6%	5.81	5.38	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	197	59	16	5	0%	1.5	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.0%	3.00	3.94	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	197	59	16	5	0%	1.5	29.9%	8.1%	21.8%	2.5%	3.00	3.00	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	66	270	55	31	7	0%	1.6	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	2.1%	3.15	4.30	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	66	270	55	31	7	0%	1.6	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	2.1%	3.15	4.30	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	66	270	55	31	7	0%	1.6	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	2.6%	3.15	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	10.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	174	36	19	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.82	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	0	13	55	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	93	31	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		148	38	354	1543	242	159	55	26%	2.4	15.7%	10.3%	5.4%	3.6%	4.90	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	21	200	871	137	90	31	26%	2.4	15.7%	10.3%	5.4%	3.6%	4.90	5.05	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Malvin Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.8%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.82	20.7%	10.0%	41	+0.14	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	79
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	72
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	72
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	71
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	71
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	20.7%	10.6%	1.18	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68