Connor Seabold

P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	35	21	119	7.51	4.66	18.5%	6.3%	0.3	K 17.6% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.36
2025	29	MIX2 levels	29	10	80	5.85	5.16	20.7%	9.8%	-0.6	K 17.8% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.71
2026	30	MIX3 levels	27	0	30	4.20	3.67	19.3%	10.7%	0.3	K 17.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	9	9	52	4.74	5.05	17.2%	9.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	8	8	46	5.08	5.31	16.4%	9.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	7	7	42	5.39	5.59	15.5%	10.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

FB Velo37

K%19

Whiff%12

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.74

FIP5.05

K%17.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB (53%)

SL (16%)

CT-0.7 (10%)

CH-0.9 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.00	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	24.6%	6.0%	18.6%	3.0%	4.28	3.41	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	1.3%	2.24	3.13	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	26.1%	5.0%	21.2%	1.4%	2.24	2.32	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	2.2%	3.59	3.72	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.6%	3.59	3.66	+0.9
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.71	3.68	+1.5
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	23.6%	5.9%	17.7%	2.6%	4.71	3.30	+2.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	17.6%	6.1%	11.4%	3.6%	7.51	4.36	+0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	18.5%	6.3%	12.2%	3.9%	7.51	4.66	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	5.6%	5.85	5.71	-1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	5.6%	5.85	5.71	-1.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	4.5%	5.85	5.16	-0.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.20	3.87	+0.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.20	3.87	+0.2
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.20	3.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	19	143	681	116	54	28	31%	2.3	17.0%	7.9%	9.1%	4.1%	7.36	5.16	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	9	9	52	220	38	21	7	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.74	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	48	203	33	20	7	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.6%	5.08	5.31	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	44	186	29	19	7	100%	6.3	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.59	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	46	194	32	19	7	100%	5.8	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.6%	5.08	5.31	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	42	177	28	18	7	100%	6.0	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.59	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	34	231	1051	175	91	42	45%	3.0	16.7%	8.6%	8.0%	4.0%	6.55	4.97	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		66	29	200	911	152	79	36	44%	3.1	16.7%	8.6%	8.0%	4.0%	6.55	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		164	103	583	2536	482	180	81	63%	3.6	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.15	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	870	165	62	28	63%	3.6	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.15	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Seabold (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.2%	9.3%	3.4%	—	5.44	16.0%	6.0%	92	+0.39	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	68
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	66
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	65
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	64
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	64
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	64
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	62
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	62
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	62
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	62
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	62
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	62
Paolo Espino R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	31	SW	4.51	18.7%	9.6%	3.2%	.348	4.42	20.4%	14.7%	202	-0.09	3.42	933	61
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	16.7%	8.9%	1.50	6.20
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Ken MacKenzie ('60-'65, -3 WAR*)	1.0	69	20.1%*	7.3%*	1.83*	5.50*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*