Matt Gage
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.5
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 261 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.60
FIP3.86
xFIP4.76
SIERA4.75
K%21.6%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%13.3%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB+2.0 (34%)
CH+0.8 (14%)
SI (2%)
SL-1.2 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 24 | 22 | 116 | 480 | 101 | 22 | 5 | 16.0% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 4.27 | 3.20 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 23 | 136 | 564 | 106 | 34 | 2 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 0.4% | 3.38 | 2.89 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 26 | 25 | 145 | 638 | 95 | 39 | 8 | 12.5% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 4.21 | 3.79 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 20 | 19 | 103 | 472 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 14.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 5.16 | 3.52 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | 25 | 24 | 118 | 523 | 106 | 39 | 14 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 5.57 | 4.02 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 43 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.14 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 52 | 0 | 55 | 218 | 58 | 20 | 2 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 0.9% | 2.11 | 2.79 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 0 | 44 | 194 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.30 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 40 | 0 | 42 | 180 | 51 | 22 | 4 | 24.9% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 61 | 3 | 69 | 279 | 59 | 16 | 2 | 19.8% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 2.23 | 2.62 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 8 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 16 | 4 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.47 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 52 | 215 | 45 | 20 | 4 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.87 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 361 | 116 | 881 | 3774 | 652 | 274 | 66 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 4.07 | 3.52 | +17.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 26 | 200 | 857 | 148 | 62 | 15 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 4.07 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Gage (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.1% | — | 4.28 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 139 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 79 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 78 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 78 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 76 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 75 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 73 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 73 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 72 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 72 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 70 |
| J.P. Howell L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.21 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .327 | 5.97 | 11.5% | -2.0% | 11 | +2.76 | 3.07 | 106 | 68 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.73 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .443 | 4.86 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 154 | 68 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 68 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.