Matt Gage
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 261 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION36 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.70
FIP3.89
xFIP4.76
SIERA4.75
K%19.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%10.1%
IP36
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB+2.0 (37%)
CH+0.8 (16%)
SI (6%)
SL-1.2 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 24 | 22 | 116 | 480 | 101 | 22 | 5 | 16.0% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 4.27 | 3.29 | +2.9 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 23 | 136 | 564 | 106 | 34 | 2 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 0.4% | 3.38 | 2.90 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 26 | 25 | 145 | 638 | 95 | 39 | 8 | 12.5% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 4.21 | 3.98 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 20 | 19 | 103 | 472 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 14.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 5.16 | 3.50 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | 25 | 24 | 118 | 523 | 106 | 39 | 14 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 5.57 | 3.90 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 43 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.14 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 52 | 0 | 55 | 218 | 58 | 20 | 2 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 2.11 | 2.83 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 0 | 44 | 194 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 4.30 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 40 | 0 | 42 | 180 | 51 | 22 | 4 | 24.9% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 61 | 3 | 69 | 279 | 59 | 16 | 2 | 19.8% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 2.23 | 2.66 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 2.62 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 9 | — | 9 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 3.89 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 33 | 141 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 18.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 382 | 116 | 898 | 3848 | 665 | 283 | 72 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 4.05 | 3.60 | +18.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 26 | 200 | 857 | 148 | 63 | 16 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 4.05 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Gage (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 2.1% | — | 4.72 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 62 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.05 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .352 | 3.71 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.05 | 117 | 79 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 78 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 78 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.89 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .316 | 6.84 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.95 | 3.19 | 564 | 75 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 74 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 73 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 73 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 73 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.93 | 18.1% | 5.5% | 1.2% | .283 | 3.71 | 14.5% | 8.3% | 50 | +0.78 | 2.93 | 478 | 71 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 71 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.85 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.40 | 1.67 | 421 | 69 |
| Manny Parra L 2025 · 2.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.89 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.34 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.45 | 2.43 | 114 | 69 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.19 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 256 | 68 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .443 | 5.09 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 74 | +1.20 | 3.89 | 154 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.