Jake Jewell — OGILVIE

Jake Jewell P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.58

K%23.5%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

CH-0.7

SL-1.6

FB-5.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Burlington Bees	31	15	111	476	110	31	8	48%	3.6	17.1%	7.7%	9.4%	1.5%	4.77	3.47	—
2015	22	A RAW	Burlington Bees	31	15	111	476	110	31	8	48%	3.6	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.7%	4.77	2.89	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	137	655	104	64	10	96%	4.9	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	2.2%	6.31	4.69	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	137	655	104	64	10	96%	4.9	15.9%	9.8%	6.1%	1.5%	6.31	3.93	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	141	605	96	44	15	96%	5.2	12.8%	8.0%	4.7%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	141	605	96	44	15	96%	5.2	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	2.5%	4.54	4.06	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	40	175	36	20	3	0%	1.4	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	2.2%	3.38	4.29	+0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	40	175	36	20	3	0%	1.4	20.6%	11.4%	9.1%	1.7%	3.38	3.78	+0.4
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	283	64	25	11	0%	1.2	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	3.9%	5.91	4.62	-0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	283	64	25	11	0%	1.2	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.9%	5.91	4.51	+0.0
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	237	60	24	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	4.1%	4.58	4.74	-0.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	55	237	60	24	9	0%	1.3	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.35	+0.1
2022	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	45	0	56	235	65	21	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	9.4%	15.0%	0.5%	3.21	2.52	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	45	0	56	235	65	21	1	0%	1.2	27.7%	8.9%	18.7%	0.4%	3.21	2.14	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	18.9%	11.1%	7.9%	3.8%	7.66	4.96	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	18.9%	11.1%	7.9%	3.8%	7.66	4.96	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	3.5%	7.66	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	0	38	176	34	14	13	0%	1.2	19.3%	8.0%	11.4%	7.4%	7.75	6.83	-1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	PHI	12	0	13	55	13	5	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.3%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	139	0	146	617	139	63	22	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.73	4.85	-0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	125	0	131	554	119	59	22	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.14	-0.9
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.73	4.85	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.14	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	48	215	43	18	14	0%	1.2	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	6.7%	7.16	6.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	904	180	75	59	0%	1.2	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	6.7%	7.16	6.16	-3.7
Career	—	MLE		277	74	629	2780	463	266	72	27%	2.3	16.6%	9.6%	7.1%	2.6%	5.04	4.32	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	24	200	884	147	84	23	27%	2.3	16.6%	9.6%	7.1%	2.6%	5.04	4.32	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Jewell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.5%	10.0%	3.3%	—	4.99	22.0%	11.6%	277	+0.41	—	—	—
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	65
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	58
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	57
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	55
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	55
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	55
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	54
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	54
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	53
John Axford R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	33	SU	3.87	20.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.304	4.05	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.18	3.20	197	52
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	52
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	19.9%	4.9%	3.5%	.277	4.37	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.42	2.95	260	52
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	52
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	52
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	52
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	52
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	51
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	51
Michael Tonkin R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	23.1%	6.8%	4.0%	.237	3.56	23.5%	15.8%	131	-0.64	2.31	480	51
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	146	22.5%	10.2%	1.39	4.75
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94