Devin Smeltzer
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124133vR 142
ERA5.18
FIP5.48
K%13.7%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%3.4%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.0
Whiff%
p1019.3%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.409
CT+0.6
CH-1.6
FB-2.3
SL-4.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 11 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 7.59 | 3.30 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 11 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 7.59 | 2.26 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 142 | 601 | 159 | 30 | 16 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 3.87 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 142 | 601 | 159 | 30 | 16 | 96% | 5.5 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 21.5% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 33 | 14 | 96 | 420 | 83 | 20 | 9 | 42% | 2.9 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 3.90 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 33 | 14 | 96 | 420 | 83 | 20 | 9 | 42% | 2.9 | 19.8% | 4.8% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 4.52 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 25 | 153 | 616 | 142 | 34 | 22 | 81% | 4.9 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 14.9% | 4.0% | 3.11 | 4.29 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 25 | 153 | 616 | 142 | 34 | 22 | 81% | 4.9 | 23.1% | 5.5% | 17.5% | 3.6% | 3.11 | 3.78 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 7 | 1 | 16 | 72 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 14% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 6.75 | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 7 | 1 | 16 | 72 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 14% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 6.75 | 3.79 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 4.7 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.35 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 4.7 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.46 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 120 | 518 | 87 | 35 | 23 | 70% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 5.31 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 120 | 518 | 87 | 35 | 23 | 70% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 5.31 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 108 | 494 | 86 | 52 | 27 | 72% | 3.7 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.40 | 6.30 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 108 | 494 | 86 | 52 | 27 | 72% | 3.7 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.40 | 6.19 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 24 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 3.69 | 5.68 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 24 | 0 | 32 | 140 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 3.69 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 11.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 8.44 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 8.44 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 51 | 214 | 28 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.50 | 5.71 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 21 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 11.3% | 11.5% | -0.2% | 4.1% | 6.06 | 6.24 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.50 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 11.3% | 11.5% | -0.2% | 4.1% | 6.06 | 6.24 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 32 | 236 | 989 | 150 | 76 | 42 | 58% | 4.3 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.79 | 5.13 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 27 | 200 | 838 | 127 | 64 | 36 | 58% | 4.3 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.79 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 110 | 694 | 2982 | 535 | 213 | 120 | 56% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 32 | 200 | 860 | 154 | 62 | 35 | 56% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Devin Smeltzer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.96 | 12.2% | 1.2% | 141 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 69 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 69 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.17 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 506 | 68 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 68 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 66 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 66 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.72 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 256 | 64 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 63 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 62 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 62 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 61 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 60 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 60 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 59 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 59 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.32 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .337 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 86 | -0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 59 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 6.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.63 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 179 | 59 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 58 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 57 |
| Jason Vargas L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 12.6% | 10.8% | 1.44 | 5.60 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |