Devin Smeltzer — OGILVIE

Devin Smeltzer P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.12

FIP5.37

K%13.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%4.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.0

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.409

CT+0.6

CH-1.6

FB-2.3

SL-4.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	11	0	11	52	12	5	0	0%	1.0	15.7%	12.0%	3.7%	0.0%	7.59	3.30	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	11	0	11	52	12	5	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	0.0%	7.59	2.26	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	142	601	159	30	16	96%	5.5	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	3.3%	4.17	3.92	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	142	601	159	30	16	96%	5.5	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	2.7%	4.17	2.96	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	14	96	420	83	20	9	42%	2.9	16.0%	5.2%	10.8%	2.6%	4.52	3.86	—
2018	22	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	14	96	420	83	20	9	42%	2.9	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	2.1%	4.52	3.21	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	25	153	616	142	34	22	81%	4.9	20.7%	5.7%	14.9%	3.9%	3.11	4.22	+1.2
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	25	153	616	142	34	22	81%	4.9	23.1%	5.5%	17.5%	3.6%	3.11	3.78	+2.1
2020	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	7	1	16	72	15	5	2	14%	2.3	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.8%	6.75	3.74	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	7	1	16	72	15	5	2	14%	2.3	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.8%	6.75	3.79	+0.1
2021	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	1	0	5	17	3	1	0	0%	4.7	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.35	+0.1
2021	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	1	0	5	17	3	1	0	0%	4.7	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.46	+0.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	120	518	87	35	23	70%	4.0	15.7%	6.9%	8.8%	4.9%	5.31	5.34	-0.6
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	120	518	87	35	23	70%	4.0	16.8%	6.8%	10.0%	4.4%	5.31	5.01	-0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	108	494	86	52	27	72%	3.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.4%	5.8%	6.40	6.23	-1.6
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	108	494	86	52	27	72%	3.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.4%	5.8%	6.40	6.23	-1.6
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	108	494	86	52	27	72%	3.7	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	5.5%	6.40	6.19	-1.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	5.1%	3.69	5.35	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	5.1%	3.69	5.35	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	4.3%	3.69	4.77	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	11.2%	8.7%	2.5%	0.0%	8.44	3.25	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	11.2%	8.7%	2.5%	0.0%	8.44	3.25	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	13.5%	9.6%	3.8%	0.0%	8.44	3.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	20	162	678	112	41	30	47%	3.8	16.5%	6.0%	10.5%	4.4%	4.32	4.88	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	DET	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	13.1%	9.1%	4.0%	3.3%	5.12	5.37	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	51	214	26	20	8	100%	6.3	12.3%	9.5%	2.9%	3.6%	5.41	5.60	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	47	198	23	20	8	100%	5.9	11.6%	9.9%	1.7%	3.8%	5.68	5.86	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	43	182	19	19	7	100%	6.2	10.7%	10.3%	0.4%	4.1%	5.95	6.13	-0.6
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	19	80	10	8	3	100%	6.3	12.3%	9.5%	2.9%	3.6%	5.41	5.60	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	13	11	4	100%	6.5	11.6%	9.9%	1.7%	3.8%	5.68	5.86	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	29	122	13	13	5	100%	5.8	10.7%	10.3%	0.4%	4.1%	5.95	6.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	32	236	989	148	72	42	58%	4.3	14.9%	7.3%	7.6%	4.2%	4.76	5.10	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	27	200	838	125	61	36	58%	4.3	14.9%	7.3%	7.6%	4.2%	4.76	5.10	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		195	110	694	2982	529	204	118	56%	3.6	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	4.0%	4.66	4.64	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	32	200	860	153	59	34	56%	3.6	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	4.0%	4.66	4.64	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Smeltzer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	13.1%	9.1%	3.3%	—	5.85	11.6%	1.7%	141	+0.48	—	—	—
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	70
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	69
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	69
James Russell L 2016 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	12.4%	5.7%	3.7%	.286	3.86	16.8%	13.2%	119	-0.94	2.66	233	68
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	67
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	64
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	62
Travis Wood L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	30	SW	5.48	14.9%	10.3%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	256	61
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	60
Ross Detwiler L 2016 · 4.61 FIP	30	SP-	4.61	14.3%	7.8%	3.2%	.297	5.54	14.8%	6.8%	220	+0.93	3.49	512	60
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	60
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	59
Jonathon Niese L 2016 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP-	5.28	16.1%	8.1%	4.6%	.308	5.67	10.9%	2.7%	70	+0.39	4.16	368	59
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	58
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	57
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	56
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	56
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.84	12.8%	2.0%	51	+1.90	3.76	674	56
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	12.0%	9.7%	1.43	5.51
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78