Ryder Ryan — OGILVIE

Ryder Ryan P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA4.86

FIP5.03

K%16.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

FB (56%)

SI (42%)

SL-2.0 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	15	0	19	85	24	9	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	1.6%	3.86	4.06	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	15	0	19	85	24	9	1	0%	1.2	28.2%	10.6%	17.6%	1.2%	3.86	2.67	—
2017	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	41	0	54	239	62	21	5	0%	1.3	19.2%	10.4%	8.8%	2.7%	4.14	4.29	—
2017	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	41	0	54	239	62	21	5	0%	1.3	25.9%	8.8%	17.2%	2.1%	4.14	3.17	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	214	59	15	5	0%	1.3	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	2.8%	3.23	3.76	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	214	59	15	5	0%	1.3	27.6%	7.0%	20.6%	2.3%	3.23	2.95	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	25	2	44	184	40	23	2	8%	1.8	17.6%	13.8%	3.9%	1.3%	3.05	4.06	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	25	2	44	184	40	23	2	8%	1.8	21.7%	12.5%	9.2%	1.1%	3.05	3.44	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	38	0	45	207	55	19	7	0%	1.2	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	3.9%	5.60	4.48	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	38	0	45	207	55	19	7	0%	1.2	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.4%	5.60	3.94	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	47	0	59	260	67	29	7	0%	1.3	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	3.1%	3.64	4.37	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	47	0	59	260	67	29	7	0%	1.3	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	2.7%	3.64	3.84	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	56	234	58	22	4	2%	1.1	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	1.7%	3.70	3.34	+0.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	56	234	58	22	4	2%	1.1	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	1.7%	3.70	3.34	+0.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	56	234	58	22	4	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	1.7%	3.70	3.14	+0.9
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	62	269	51	24	10	0%	1.3	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	4.4%	4.96	5.16	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	62	269	51	24	10	0%	1.3	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	4.4%	4.96	5.16	-0.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	62	269	51	24	10	0%	1.3	19.0%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	4.96	4.72	-0.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	42	3	72	309	61	38	4	7%	1.7	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	1.6%	4.73	3.97	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	42	3	72	309	61	38	4	7%	1.7	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	1.6%	4.73	3.97	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	42	3	72	309	61	38	4	7%	1.7	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	1.3%	4.73	3.71	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	0	22	97	19	10	2	0%	1.4	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	2.1%	5.40	3.93	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	23	10	70	310	57	32	10	43%	3.0	15.3%	9.3%	6.0%	3.5%	5.43	4.94	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	23	10	70	310	57	32	10	43%	3.0	15.3%	9.3%	6.0%	3.5%	5.43	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	LAD	23	10	70	310	57	32	10	43%	3.0	18.4%	10.3%	8.1%	3.2%	5.43	4.63	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	LAD	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	16.0%	11.3%	4.7%	2.7%	4.86	5.03	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	75	334	61	35	11	—	—	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	3.2%	5.38	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	57	241	38	28	7	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.04	5.21	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAD	50	0	52	221	35	26	7	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.43	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAD	20	0	21	89	14	10	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.04	5.21	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAD	28	0	29	122	19	14	4	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	72	310	53	35	9	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	2.8%	5.23	4.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	860	147	97	25	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	2.8%	5.23	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		369	16	534	2311	439	233	64	4%	1.4	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.29	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	6	200	865	164	87	24	4%	1.4	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.29	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryder Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	16.0%	11.3%	2.7%	—	5.32	15.8%	4.2%	110	+0.29	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	76
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	76
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Vin Mazzaro R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	29	SU	4.04	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	73
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	72
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	72
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	72
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	72
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	72
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	71
Bobby Parnell R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	14.1%	9.5%	1.3%	.297	3.55	15.2%	3.9%	34	-0.29	3.55	102	71
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	70
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	70
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	70
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	15.8%	11.5%	1.14	5.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99