Corbin Martin

P Iowa Cubs

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	AAABAL	38	0	43	4.78	4.39	19.4%	15.6%	—	K 16.7% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.33
2025	29	MIX2 levels	51	1	57	5.88	4.71	23.6%	12.4%	-0.1	K 21.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.79
2026	30	MIX2 levels	28	1	29	7.14	6.76	19.4%	16.5%	-0.7	K 17.4% · BB 14.2% · FIP 6.08
2027PROJ	31	MLBCHC	114	0	120	5.01	5.19	21.9%	13.1%	-0.9
2028PROJ88% MLB	32	MLBCHC	86	0	90	5.17	5.35	21.1%	12.9%	-0.8
2029PROJ90% MLB	33	MLBCHC	70	0	73	5.36	5.55	20.3%	13.0%	-0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control39Command46FB velo54

CompsDustin Molleken (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Angel Sánchez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.01

FIP5.19

K%21.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	1	5	17	5	1	0	50%	2.5	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.36	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	1	5	17	5	1	0	50%	2.5	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.70	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	122	479	122	35	7	84%	4.9	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	1.7%	2.51	3.31	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	122	479	122	35	7	84%	4.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	1.5%	2.51	2.71	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	57	250	64	30	10	93%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	11.1%	4.2%	3.97	5.00	+0.3
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	57	250	64	30	10	93%	4.0	25.6%	12.0%	13.6%	4.0%	3.97	4.72	+0.4
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	43	219	43	33	12	82%	3.9	18.0%	15.5%	2.5%	6.1%	7.68	6.89	-0.7
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	43	219	43	33	12	82%	3.9	19.6%	15.1%	4.6%	5.5%	7.68	7.00	-0.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	99	441	100	42	18	79%	4.1	20.5%	9.9%	10.7%	4.6%	5.80	5.14	+0.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	99	441	100	42	18	79%	4.1	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	4.1%	5.80	4.71	+0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	38	0	43	211	41	33	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	1.6%	4.78	4.33	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	38	0	43	211	41	33	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	1.6%	4.78	4.33	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	38	0	43	211	41	33	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.6%	3.8%	1.4%	4.78	4.39	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	57	258	61	32	9	2%	1.1	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	3.7%	5.88	4.79	-0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	57	258	61	32	9	2%	1.1	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	3.7%	5.88	4.79	-0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	57	258	61	32	9	2%	1.1	23.6%	12.4%	11.2%	3.5%	5.88	4.71	-0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	29	139	27	23	7	4%	1.0	17.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.8%	7.14	6.08	-0.5
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	29	139	27	23	7	4%	1.0	17.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.8%	7.14	6.08	-0.5
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	29	139	27	23	7	4%	1.0	19.4%	16.5%	2.9%	5.0%	7.14	6.76	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	10	81	393	80	52	22	24%	2.0	20.4%	13.2%	7.1%	5.6%	6.81	6.60	-1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CHC	114	0	120	507	111	66	18	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.01	5.19	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CHC	98	0	102	433	91	56	16	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.9%	8.1%	3.7%	5.17	5.35	-0.9
2029	33	MLB MLE	CHC	77	0	81	342	70	44	13	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	3.9%	5.36	5.55	-0.9
2028	32	MLB CTX	CHC	86	0	90	380	80	49	14	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.9%	8.1%	3.7%	5.17	5.35	-0.8
2029	33	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	73	308	63	40	12	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	3.9%	5.36	5.55	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		196	10	243	1080	223	141	48	5%	1.2	20.6%	13.1%	7.5%	4.4%	5.77	5.45	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		161	8	200	887	183	116	39	5%	1.2	20.6%	13.1%	7.5%	4.4%	5.77	5.45	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		193	65	455	2014	406	227	72	34%	2.4	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	3.6%	4.80	4.78	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	29	200	885	178	100	32	34%	2.4	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	3.6%	4.80	4.78	-2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 24 IPFIP 5.80 → 6.08 (+0.28)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.18%	—	×0.860	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.80 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 39 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.91 (+0.36)K% 22.5% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.49%	—	×0.860	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.61%	—	×0.900	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.44%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 43 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.33 (+0.11)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.43%	—	×0.860	16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.64%	—	×0.900	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.57%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 77 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.31 (+0.63)K% 23.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.880	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.050	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	4.41%	÷0.965	×1.100	5.03%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 27 IPFIP 5.89 → 6.64 (+0.75)K% 22.6% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.880	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.050	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷0.958	×1.100	6.05%

Result: FIP 5.89 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 37 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.30 (+0.47)K% 28.5% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.880	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×1.050	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.948	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 103 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.51 (+0.59)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.47%	—	×0.810	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.100	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.059	×1.200	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 19 IPFIP 1.23 → 2.14 (+0.91)K% 37.1% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.14%	—	×0.770	28.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.962	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.23 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corbin Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	21.9%	13.1%	3.5%	—	5.44	20.7%	7.8%	184	+0.25	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	67
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	67
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	67
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	66
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	64
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	63
David Carpenter R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.8%	2.9%	.333	3.89	21.5%	11.9%	49	-0.60	2.66	275	63
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	63
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	63
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	62
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	62
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	62
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	62
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	62
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	62
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	102	21.0%	13.1%	1.57	5.48
Sean Douglass ('05)	1.0	52	16.6%	12.1%	1.47	6.11
Mike Warren ('83-'85, -2 WAR*)	1.0	68	22.5%*	11.0%*	1.46*	5.70*
Steve Dunning ('70-'77, -1 WAR*)	3.1	123	20.2%*	11.5%*	1.71*	5.25*
Ruben Quevedo ('03)	1.6	82	15.8%	11.7%	1.93	6.15
Ken Cloude ('99)	1.4	93	15.0%	11.7%	1.52	6.56
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*