Chance Kirby prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chance Kirby P Erie SeaWolves

Age 31 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.1%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	33	131	35	7	2	71%	4.7	17.8%	5.7%	12.1%	3.3%	3.27	4.14	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	33	131	35	7	2	71%	4.7	26.7%	5.3%	21.4%	1.5%	3.27	2.40	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	88	363	64	15	12	78%	4.9	13.2%	4.8%	8.3%	5.1%	4.62	5.39	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	88	363	64	15	12	78%	4.9	17.6%	4.1%	13.5%	3.3%	4.62	3.93	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	83	347	66	31	14	79%	4.4	15.1%	10.0%	5.1%	5.0%	4.54	5.83	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	83	347	66	31	14	79%	4.4	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	4.0%	4.54	4.82	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	29	21	127	496	116	29	14	72%	4.4	18.9%	6.4%	12.5%	3.7%	2.62	4.32	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	29	21	127	496	116	29	14	72%	4.4	23.4%	5.8%	17.5%	2.8%	2.62	3.39	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	2	17	82	11	10	4	22%	1.9	14.0%	16.9%	-2.9%	6.6%	7.27	7.66	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	2	17	82	11	10	4	22%	1.9	14.0%	16.9%	-2.9%	6.6%	7.27	7.66	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	2	17	82	11	10	4	22%	1.9	13.4%	12.2%	1.2%	4.9%	7.27	6.56	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	3	3	20	84	18	9	3	100%	6.7	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	6	26	6	3	1	100%	6.3	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	96	32	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.41	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		82	57	348	1419	229	105	64	70%	4.2	16.1%	7.4%	8.7%	4.5%	3.88	5.14	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	33	200	815	131	60	37	70%	4.2	16.1%	7.4%	8.7%	4.5%	3.88	5.14	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chance Kirby (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.1%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.79	21.8%	11.1%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	70
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	62
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	62
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	62
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	61
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	61
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	61
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	60
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	57
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	57
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	57
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	57
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	56
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	56
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	56
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	55
Logan Duran R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.77	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.42	187	55