J.B. Bukauskas prospect projection, MLE, ETA

J.B. Bukauskas P Nashville Sounds

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%23.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

SL+1.5 (51%)

FB (49%)

SI (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	1	1	4	14	3	1	0	100%	4.0	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.20	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	1	1	4	14	3	1	0	100%	4.0	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.35	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	11	51	204	62	22	1	100%	4.6	22.6%	13.3%	9.3%	0.7%	2.49	3.29	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	11	51	204	62	22	1	100%	4.6	30.4%	10.8%	19.6%	0.5%	2.49	2.21	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	22	16	93	416	109	59	8	73%	4.2	21.2%	15.6%	5.6%	2.4%	5.44	4.60	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	22	16	93	416	109	59	8	73%	4.2	26.2%	14.2%	12.0%	1.9%	5.44	3.78	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	30	132	30	10	5	0%	0.9	21.3%	7.7%	13.5%	4.1%	6.30	4.52	+0.0
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	30	132	30	10	5	0%	0.9	22.7%	7.6%	15.2%	3.8%	6.30	4.27	+0.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	22	87	22	4	1	4%	1.0	20.9%	5.3%	15.6%	1.4%	2.42	2.78	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	22	87	22	4	1	4%	1.0	25.3%	4.6%	20.7%	1.1%	2.42	2.25	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	216	56	15	3	0%	1.2	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	2.0%	3.26	3.06	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	216	56	15	3	0%	1.2	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	2.0%	3.26	3.06	+0.9
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	50	216	56	15	3	0%	1.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	1.4%	3.26	2.54	+1.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	0	12	46	10	1	1	0%	0.9	21.7%	2.2%	19.6%	2.2%	1.50	2.73	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	0	12	46	10	1	1	0%	0.9	21.7%	2.2%	19.6%	2.2%	1.50	2.73	+0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	0	12	46	10	1	1	0%	0.9	21.7%	2.2%	19.6%	2.2%	1.50	2.77	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	0	30	133	27	9	5	0%	0.9	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.8%	5.04	4.35	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	11	0	8	47	8	11	0	0%	0.7	—	—	—	—	12.38	—	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	11	0	8	47	8	11	0	0%	0.7	—	—	—	—	12.38	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	ROK RAW	MIL	2	0	1	7	2	0	0	0%	0.5	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	36.00	0.69	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	MIL	9	0	7	40	6	11	0	0%	0.8	15.0%	27.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.00	5.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	22	0	23	99	22	8	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.31	4.39	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.31	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	39	169	35	12	6	0%	0.9	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.6%	4.88	4.24	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		212	0	200	870	180	62	31	0%	0.9	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	3.6%	4.88	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		157	29	269	1162	251	133	23	18%	1.7	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	2.0%	4.28	3.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	22	200	863	186	99	17	18%	1.7	21.6%	11.5%	10.1%	2.0%	4.28	3.83	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.B. Bukauskas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	23.1%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.39	22.4%	13.9%	23	+0.22	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	84
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	78
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	21.8%	8.3%	1.28	4.55
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49