J.C. Mejía
P
Nashville Sounds
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.80
FIP4.30
xFIP3.04
SIERA3.15
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p7126.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
SL+0.8
FB-1.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | 19 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 10.7% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 1.37 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians | 17 | 1 | 34 | 147 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 3.48 | 2.78 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 3.14 | 2.62 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 18 | 16 | 98 | 396 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 3.31 | 2.80 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 8 | 8 | 33 | 134 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 4.09 | 2.33 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 27 | 17 | 78 | 355 | 74 | 40 | 21 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 7.76 | 6.11 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 42 | 371 | 1568 | 295 | 137 | 35 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 3.82 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 23 | 200 | 845 | 159 | 74 | 19 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 3.82 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.C. Mejía (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 97 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 81 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 78 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.60 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .328 | 4.66 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.06 | 2.39 | 676 | 77 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.71 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .253 | 3.13 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.58 | 2.04 | 269 | 77 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 76 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 75 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 75 |
| Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.70 | 17.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .309 | 2.99 | 25.0% | 16.6% | 152 | -1.71 | 2.41 | 343 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.