J.C. Mejía
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.62
FIP4.57
K%21.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p7126.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
SL+0.8
FB-1.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | 19 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 10.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.37 | 3.88 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | 19 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 15.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 0.6% | 1.37 | 3.07 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians | 17 | 1 | 34 | 147 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 6% | 2.0 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 3.48 | 2.78 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians | 17 | 1 | 34 | 147 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 6% | 2.0 | 15.0% | 3.4% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 3.48 | 2.24 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 3.14 | 2.62 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.6% | 8.1% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 3.14 | 1.50 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 98 | 396 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 89% | 5.4 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 3.31 | 2.77 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 98 | 396 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 89% | 5.4 | 25.3% | 5.3% | 19.9% | 0.8% | 3.31 | 2.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 8 | 8 | 33 | 134 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 4.09 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 8 | 8 | 33 | 134 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 4.1 | 26.9% | 6.7% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 4.09 | 1.74 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 78 | 355 | 74 | 40 | 21 | 63% | 2.9 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.76 | 6.17 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 17 | 78 | 355 | 74 | 40 | 21 | 63% | 2.9 | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 7.76 | 6.25 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 37 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 3.67 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 11 | 113 | 502 | 102 | 52 | 22 | 15% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 6.84 | 5.07 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 19 | 200 | 889 | 181 | 92 | 39 | 15% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 6.84 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 159 | 42 | 371 | 1568 | 295 | 137 | 35 | 26% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 23 | 200 | 845 | 159 | 74 | 19 | 26% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.C. Mejía (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.85 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 103 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 78 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 74 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 73 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 72 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 71 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 71 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 70 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 70 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 70 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 69 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 69 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 69 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 69 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 69 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 69 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 1.27 | 4.71 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |