J.C. Mejía — OGILVIE

J.C. Mejía P Nashville Sounds

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.61

FIP4.55

K%21.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

SL+0.8

FB-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	19	0	39	159	25	12	1	0%	2.1	10.7%	9.4%	1.3%	0.9%	1.37	3.88	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	19	0	39	159	25	12	1	0%	2.1	15.7%	7.5%	8.2%	0.6%	1.37	3.07	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	17	1	34	147	22	5	0	6%	2.0	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	0.0%	3.48	2.78	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	17	1	34	147	22	5	0	6%	2.0	15.0%	3.4%	11.6%	0.0%	3.48	2.24	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	10	0	14	62	19	5	0	0%	1.4	20.8%	10.1%	10.8%	0.0%	3.14	2.62	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	10	0	14	62	19	5	0	0%	1.4	30.6%	8.1%	22.6%	0.0%	3.14	1.50	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	98	396	100	21	3	89%	5.4	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	1.0%	3.31	2.81	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	98	396	100	21	3	89%	5.4	25.3%	5.3%	19.9%	0.8%	3.31	2.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	8	8	33	134	36	9	0	100%	4.1	20.7%	7.7%	13.0%	0.0%	4.09	2.33	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	8	8	33	134	36	9	0	100%	4.1	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.0%	4.09	1.74	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	78	355	74	40	21	63%	2.9	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	6.1%	7.76	6.20	-1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	78	355	74	40	21	63%	2.9	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	5.9%	7.76	6.25	-1.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	138	37	18	3	0%	1.2	24.8%	11.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.05	4.12	+0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	33	138	37	18	3	0%	1.2	26.8%	13.0%	13.8%	2.2%	4.05	3.67	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	22.4%	8.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.32	3.61	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	22.4%	8.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.32	3.61	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	42	177	45	16	4	0%	1.3	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.3%	4.32	3.34	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	11	66	304	61	32	15	39%	2.4	20.1%	10.5%	9.5%	4.9%	8.32	5.66	-0.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIL	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	51	0	53	225	48	22	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.73	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	47	0	50	210	43	21	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.93	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.73	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	23	12	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	11	113	502	102	52	22	15%	1.5	20.4%	10.3%	10.0%	4.3%	6.84	5.06	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		129	19	200	889	181	92	39	15%	1.6	20.4%	10.3%	10.0%	4.3%	6.84	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		159	42	371	1568	294	135	35	26%	2.3	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.2%	4.29	3.84	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	845	158	73	19	26%	2.3	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.2%	4.29	3.84	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.C. Mejía (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.7%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.83	20.9%	10.9%	103	+0.28	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	79
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	77
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	75
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	73
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	73
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	676	72
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	71
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	70
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	70
Brandon Workman R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	23.6%	7.5%	3.0%	.253	3.15	29.9%	16.3%	119	-0.57	2.04	269	69
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	69
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	69
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	69
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	21.2%	9.8%	1.26	4.70
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58