Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 4 | 43 | 177 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 40% | 4.3 | 11.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.66 | 3.83 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 4 | 43 | 177 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 40% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 1.1% | 1.66 | 2.98 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | 10 | 10 | 45 | 204 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 10.9% | 11.6% | -0.7% | 5.1% | 5.96 | 6.44 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | 10 | 10 | 45 | 204 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.96 | 5.39 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.5% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 6.17 | 1.87 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 0.0% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 6.17 | 1.39 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 122 | 528 | 125 | 32 | 12 | 76% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.44 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 122 | 528 | 125 | 32 | 12 | 76% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 24 | 24 | 131 | 568 | 122 | 41 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 3.28 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 24 | 24 | 131 | 568 | 122 | 41 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 2.67 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 64 | 291 | 74 | 27 | 4 | 41% | 2.9 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 3.94 | 3.25 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 64 | 291 | 74 | 27 | 4 | 41% | 2.9 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 2.87 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 35 | 19 | 102 | 469 | 118 | 51 | 11 | 54% | 2.9 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 35 | 19 | 102 | 469 | 118 | 51 | 11 | 54% | 2.9 | 25.2% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 98 | 449 | 75 | 56 | 9 | 86% | 4.7 | 14.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 5.13 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 18 | 98 | 449 | 75 | 56 | 9 | 86% | 4.7 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 5.13 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 27 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 36 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 0.7% | 3.86 | 2.78 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 14 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 54 | 232 | 49 | 21 | 4 | — | — | 21.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 3.09 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 46 | 195 | 49 | 21 | 4 | — | — | 25.4% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 1.8% | 4.55 | 3.34 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 0 | 224 | 952 | 203 | 102 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.03 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 182 | 91 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 105 | 657 | 2908 | 504 | 283 | 65 | 60% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 4.09 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 32 | 200 | 886 | 154 | 86 | 20 | 60% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enmanuel De Jesus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.68 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 180 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 73 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 72 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 69 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 68 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 68 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 67 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 65 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 65 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 64 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.17 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 764 | 63 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.32 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .286 | 4.42 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 196 | -0.90 | 3.64 | 856 | 63 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 62 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 62 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 61 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 61 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.42 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.88 | 3.54 | 189 | 60 |
| John Anderson L 2024 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 60 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.14 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |