T.J. Zeuch — OGILVIE

T.J. Zeuch P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 RHP 6'7" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.75

FIP5.59

K%15.6%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD2020

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p107.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.437

CT-0.9

SL-1.1

CH-1.8

FB-7.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	11	48	16	2	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	4.2%	29.2%	2.1%	6.55	1.96	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	11	48	16	2	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	4.2%	29.2%	2.1%	6.55	1.92	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	66	296	51	19	4	93%	4.4	13.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.1%	3.56	3.52	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	66	296	51	19	4	93%	4.4	17.2%	6.4%	10.8%	1.4%	3.56	3.21	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	156	650	105	40	11	100%	5.8	12.9%	6.8%	6.1%	2.0%	3.17	3.99	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	156	650	105	40	11	100%	5.8	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	1.7%	3.17	3.44	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	109	470	71	45	8	90%	5.5	12.5%	10.3%	2.2%	2.0%	3.95	4.43	+0.6
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	109	470	71	45	8	90%	5.5	15.1%	9.6%	5.5%	1.7%	3.95	3.99	+1.2
2020	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	3	1	11	47	3	4	1	33%	3.8	6.4%	8.5%	-2.1%	2.1%	1.59	4.81	-0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	3	1	11	47	3	4	1	33%	3.8	6.4%	8.5%	-2.1%	2.1%	1.59	4.78	-0.0
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	111	489	85	37	20	65%	4.3	15.5%	7.9%	7.6%	4.5%	4.69	5.28	-0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	111	489	85	37	20	65%	4.3	17.4%	7.6%	9.8%	4.1%	4.69	4.91	-0.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	56	270	59	29	13	100%	3.5	17.8%	11.3%	6.4%	4.5%	8.31	5.50	-0.4
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	56	270	59	29	13	100%	3.5	21.9%	10.7%	11.1%	4.8%	8.31	5.55	-0.4
2023	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	16	15	75	318	42	29	8	94%	4.7	11.0%	8.2%	2.8%	2.7%	5.06	4.69	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	16	15	75	318	42	29	8	94%	4.7	11.0%	8.2%	2.8%	2.7%	5.06	4.69	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	16	15	75	318	42	29	8	94%	4.7	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	2.5%	5.06	4.53	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	8.2%	6.6%	1.5%	8.2%	11.69	7.77	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	8.2%	6.6%	1.5%	8.2%	11.69	7.77	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	9.8%	7.4%	2.5%	7.4%	11.69	8.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	10	60	284	36	31	14	62%	3.7	12.7%	10.9%	1.8%	4.9%	6.49	6.50	-1.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	WSH	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	3.7%	5.75	5.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	54	227	36	25	9	100%	6.0	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.9%	5.67	5.70	-0.5
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	50	210	32	24	9	100%	6.2	15.4%	11.4%	4.0%	4.1%	5.73	5.85	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	20	84	13	9	3	100%	6.7	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.9%	5.67	5.70	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	27	114	18	13	5	100%	6.8	15.4%	11.4%	4.0%	4.1%	5.73	5.85	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	18	107	483	67	54	22	75%	4.5	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.5%	6.14	5.82	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	33	200	904	125	101	41	75%	4.5	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.5%	6.14	5.82	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		137	112	618	2710	370	224	81	82%	4.5	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	877	120	72	26	82%	4.5	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Zeuch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	15.6%	11.0%	3.7%	—	5.77	15.6%	4.3%	104	+0.18	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	85
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	77
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	76
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	75
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	75
Casey Coleman R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	16.8%	11.4%	3.1%	.343	4.99	17.5%	8.8%	107	+0.15	2.95	306	75
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	75
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	75
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	74
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	73
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	69
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.27	283	68
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	67
Donn Roach R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	29	SP	5.06	12.2%	7.1%	3.8%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	455	67
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	15.6%	11.2%	1.50	5.72
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43