T.J. Zeuch
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 30
RHP
6'7" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146136vR 127
ERA5.79
FIP5.64
K%15.8%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1015.9%
K%
p107.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.437
CT-0.9
SL-1.1
CH-1.8
FB-7.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 33.3% | 4.2% | 29.2% | 2.1% | 6.55 | 1.96 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 33.3% | 4.2% | 29.2% | 2.1% | 6.55 | 1.92 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 66 | 296 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 93% | 4.4 | 13.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 0.9% | 3.56 | 3.42 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 66 | 296 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 93% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 1.4% | 3.56 | 3.21 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 156 | 650 | 105 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 4.00 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 156 | 650 | 105 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 3.17 | 3.44 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 109 | 470 | 71 | 45 | 8 | 90% | 5.5 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.95 | 4.43 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 109 | 470 | 71 | 45 | 8 | 90% | 5.5 | 15.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 33% | 3.8 | 6.4% | 8.5% | -2.1% | 2.1% | 1.59 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 33% | 3.8 | 6.4% | 8.5% | -2.1% | 2.1% | 1.59 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 111 | 489 | 85 | 37 | 20 | 65% | 4.3 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.69 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 111 | 489 | 85 | 37 | 20 | 65% | 4.3 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 4.69 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 56 | 270 | 59 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 3.5 | 17.8% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 8.31 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 56 | 270 | 59 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 3.5 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 8.31 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 16 | 15 | 75 | 318 | 42 | 29 | 8 | 94% | 4.7 | 11.6% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.77 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 16 | 15 | 75 | 318 | 42 | 29 | 8 | 94% | 4.7 | 13.2% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 4.53 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 11 | 1 | 22 | 122 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9% | 2.0 | 8.7% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 8.3% | 11.69 | 7.93 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 11 | 1 | 22 | 122 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9% | 2.0 | 9.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 7.4% | 11.69 | 8.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 39 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.8% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.79 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.70 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 33 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.77 | 5.89 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.70 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 15.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.77 | 5.89 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 18 | 107 | 483 | 67 | 54 | 22 | 75% | 4.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.16 | 5.84 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 33 | 200 | 904 | 125 | 101 | 41 | 75% | 4.5 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.16 | 5.84 | -1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 112 | 618 | 2710 | 373 | 230 | 80 | 82% | 4.5 | 13.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 877 | 121 | 74 | 26 | 82% | 4.5 | 13.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| T.J. Zeuch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.64 | 15.8% | 11.5% | 3.7% | — | 5.81 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 104 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 84 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 77 |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 76 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 75 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .343 | 4.99 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.08 | 2.86 | 306 | 75 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 75 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 75 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 74 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 73 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 73 |
| Mat Latos R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 72 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 71 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.42 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .303 | 4.43 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 185 | -0.99 | 2.82 | 449 | 70 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 70 |
| Alex Caldera R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.61 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 120 | 69 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.28 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .299 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 194 | -0.08 | 2.90 | 806 | 69 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 68 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 15.7% | 11.6% | 1.50 | 5.75 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |