A.J. Puckett — OGILVIE

A.J. Puckett P Knoxville Smokies

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%15.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	59	237	45	15	5	100%	4.5	13.4%	8.6%	4.7%	1.9%	3.68	4.12	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	59	237	45	15	5	100%	4.5	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	2.1%	3.68	3.44	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	25	136	590	119	51	9	100%	5.4	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	1.5%	3.98	3.87	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	25	25	136	590	119	51	9	100%	5.4	20.2%	8.6%	11.5%	1.5%	3.98	3.34	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	81	338	72	32	3	75%	4.0	16.8%	10.7%	6.1%	1.3%	2.90	3.73	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	81	338	72	32	3	75%	4.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	0.9%	2.90	2.99	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	33	5	59	282	74	25	7	15%	1.8	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.2%	7.36	4.30	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	33	5	59	282	74	25	7	15%	1.8	26.2%	8.9%	17.4%	2.5%	7.36	3.41	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	64	279	54	28	5	6%	1.4	16.2%	10.2%	6.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.50	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	64	279	54	28	5	6%	1.4	16.2%	10.2%	6.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.50	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	64	279	54	28	5	6%	1.4	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	1.8%	4.52	3.74	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	1.2%	3.35	3.46	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	1.2%	3.35	3.46	—
2025	30	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	0.9%	3.35	2.86	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CHC	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.9%	5.8%	2.6%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CHC	57	0	60	254	41	26	7	0%	1.1	16.1%	10.2%	5.8%	2.9%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	53	0	55	233	38	25	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.5%	3.2%	5.07	5.20	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	CHC	18	0	19	80	13	8	2	0%	1.1	16.1%	10.2%	5.8%	2.9%	4.91	5.00	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	27	0	28	118	19	13	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.6%	5.5%	3.2%	5.07	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	199	32	21	6	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.1%	5.01	4.74	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	89	25	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.1%	5.01	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		184	61	448	1952	322	191	37	33%	2.4	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.98	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	27	200	871	144	85	16	33%	2.4	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.98	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Puckett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	15.8%	9.9%	2.6%	—	5.10	16.1%	5.7%	115	+0.27	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	88
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	87
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	84
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	82
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	80
Vin Mazzaro R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	29	SU	4.04	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	78
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	78
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	75
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	73
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	73
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	73
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	73
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	72
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	72
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	72
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	16.0%	10.2%	1.11	4.93
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43