A.J. Puckett
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.3%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.2%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 13 | 13 | 59 | 237 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 3.68 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 25 | 25 | 136 | 590 | 119 | 51 | 9 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 1.4% | 3.98 | 3.84 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 20 | 15 | 81 | 338 | 72 | 32 | 3 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 2.90 | 3.77 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 33 | 5 | 59 | 282 | 74 | 25 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 7.36 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 47 | 3 | 64 | 279 | 54 | 28 | 5 | 16.2% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 46 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 3.35 | 3.46 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 18.4% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 61 | 448 | 1952 | 322 | 191 | 37 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 3.97 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 27 | 200 | 871 | 144 | 85 | 17 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Puckett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.69 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 88 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 88 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 86 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 85 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 83 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 83 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 83 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 82 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 81 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 81 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 81 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 81 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 81 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.