A.J. Puckett
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 110
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
K%15.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%5.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 237 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 3.68 | 3.92 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 237 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.44 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 25 | 25 | 136 | 590 | 119 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 3.98 | 3.72 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 25 | 25 | 136 | 590 | 119 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 3.98 | 3.34 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 81 | 338 | 72 | 32 | 3 | 75% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 2.90 | 3.86 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 81 | 338 | 72 | 32 | 3 | 75% | 4.0 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 0.9% | 2.90 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 33 | 5 | 59 | 282 | 74 | 25 | 7 | 15% | 1.8 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 7.36 | 4.45 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 33 | 5 | 59 | 282 | 74 | 25 | 7 | 15% | 1.8 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 2.5% | 7.36 | 3.41 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 64 | 279 | 54 | 28 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 16.2% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 64 | 279 | 54 | 28 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 4.52 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 46 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.35 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 46 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 3.35 | 2.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 38 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 4.77 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 89 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 184 | 61 | 448 | 1952 | 322 | 191 | 38 | 33% | 2.4 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 4.01 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 27 | 200 | 871 | 144 | 85 | 17 | 33% | 2.4 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Puckett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 5.13 | 16.1% | 5.6% | 115 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 89 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 87 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 86 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 84 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 80 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 80 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 80 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 78 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 73 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 73 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 72 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.69 | 4.11 | 156 | 72 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.45 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 16.0% | 10.3% | 1.13 | 4.96 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |