Joe Harvey prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Joe Harvey P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 236 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%21.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

SL+0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	15	0	17	78	21	7	0	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	0.0%	4.24	2.76	—
2015	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	15	0	17	78	21	7	0	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.0%	17.9%	0.0%	4.24	1.86	—
2016	24	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	5	5	13	43	5	0	0	100%	2.5	11.6%	0.0%	11.6%	0.0%	0.71	2.12	—
2016	24	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	5	5	13	43	5	0	0	100%	2.5	11.6%	0.0%	11.6%	0.0%	0.71	2.31	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	18	0	26	99	29	8	2	0%	1.4	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.7%	1.05	3.83	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	Tampa Yankees	18	0	26	99	29	8	2	0%	1.4	29.3%	8.1%	21.2%	2.0%	1.05	2.79	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	59	234	68	25	2	0%	1.4	25.1%	10.3%	14.8%	0.5%	1.67	2.56	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	59	234	68	25	2	0%	1.4	29.1%	10.7%	18.4%	0.9%	1.67	2.51	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	53	238	65	33	12	0%	1.1	24.9%	14.3%	10.6%	4.8%	4.96	5.43	-0.5
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	53	238	65	33	12	0%	1.1	27.3%	13.9%	13.4%	5.0%	4.96	5.47	-0.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	4	0	3	14	2	0	0	0%	0.8	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	4	0	3	14	2	0	0	0%	0.8	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	+0.1
2021	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	19	0	17	79	24	15	4	0%	0.9	26.7%	19.9%	6.8%	5.0%	5.40	6.09	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	19	0	17	79	24	15	4	0%	0.9	30.4%	19.0%	11.4%	5.1%	5.40	6.04	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	33	138	33	19	3	0%	1.2	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	2.6%	5.13	4.56	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	33	138	33	19	3	0%	1.2	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	2.6%	5.13	4.56	—
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	33	138	33	19	3	0%	1.2	23.9%	13.8%	10.1%	2.2%	5.13	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	0	21	98	19	13	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.97	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	ATL	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.89	-0.1
2027	35	MLB CTX	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		23	0	22	103	20	13	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.2%	6.3%	3.1%	4.25	4.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	915	178	116	27	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.2%	6.3%	3.1%	4.25	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		180	5	221	923	210	109	23	3%	1.2	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.5%	3.30	4.02	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	5	200	837	190	99	21	3%	1.2	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.5%	3.30	4.02	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Harvey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	21.8%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.89	20.9%	10.2%	20	+0.30	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	80
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	77
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	76
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	75
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	72
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	72
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	71
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	71
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	71
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	70
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	69
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	68
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	68
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	67
Travis Smith R 2005 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	17.3%	7.7%	1.9%	.421	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	105	65
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	200	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.6%	11.6%	1.21	4.51
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43