Luis Reyes
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%8.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 24 | 24 | 118 | 514 | 72 | 50 | 10 | 10.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 17 | 17 | 87 | 397 | 53 | 52 | 9 | 10.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 26 | 26 | 143 | 622 | 133 | 54 | 19 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 14 | 14 | 68 | 304 | 39 | 32 | 9 | 10.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | 5.14 | 6.09 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 31 | 7 | 77 | 338 | 78 | 35 | 2 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 4.81 | 3.52 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 24 | 127 | 553 | 109 | 59 | 19 | 16.3% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 5.19 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 26 | 21 | 121 | 534 | 114 | 68 | 17 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 5.80 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 0 | 68 | 313 | 67 | 46 | 4 | 18.8% | 15.4% | 1.3% | 4.35 | 4.20 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 32 | 1 | 44 | 213 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 6.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 134 | 852 | 3788 | 554 | 471 | 107 | 14.6% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.99 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 31 | 200 | 889 | 130 | 111 | 25 | 14.6% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 4.99 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.85 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 89 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 86 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 84 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 81 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 81 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 81 |
| Jason Urquidez R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.58 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .386 | 1.79 | 25.5% | 20.7% | 90 | -1.79 | 1.25 | 123 | 79 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 79 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 79 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 79 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 79 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.61 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 4.13 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.48 | 4.13 | 156 | 78 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.