Luis Reyes — OGILVIE

Luis Reyes P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%14.9%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4045

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	24	24	118	514	72	50	10	100%	4.9	10.4%	11.5%	-1.1%	2.6%	4.82	5.10	—
2015	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	24	24	118	514	72	50	10	100%	4.9	14.0%	9.7%	4.3%	1.9%	4.82	4.26	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	87	397	53	52	9	100%	5.1	10.2%	15.1%	-4.9%	2.7%	5.09	5.62	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	87	397	53	52	9	100%	5.1	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	2.3%	5.09	5.03	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	26	26	143	622	133	54	19	100%	5.5	16.5%	10.0%	6.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.51	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	26	26	143	622	133	54	19	100%	5.5	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.10	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	304	39	32	9	100%	4.9	10.2%	12.4%	-2.1%	4.1%	5.14	6.05	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	68	304	39	32	9	100%	4.9	12.8%	10.5%	2.3%	3.0%	5.14	5.08	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	31	7	77	338	78	35	2	23%	2.5	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	0.7%	4.81	3.52	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	31	7	77	338	78	35	2	23%	2.5	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	0.6%	4.81	2.77	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	127	553	109	59	19	96%	5.1	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	4.0%	5.19	5.35	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	127	553	109	59	19	96%	5.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.4%	5.19	4.73	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	121	534	114	68	17	81%	4.7	17.4%	13.9%	3.6%	3.7%	5.80	5.44	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	121	534	114	68	17	81%	4.7	21.3%	12.7%	8.6%	3.2%	5.80	4.73	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	45	0	68	313	67	46	4	0%	1.5	17.8%	13.2%	4.5%	1.3%	4.35	4.00	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	45	0	68	313	67	46	4	0%	1.5	17.8%	13.2%	4.5%	1.3%	4.35	4.00	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	45	0	68	313	67	46	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	1.3%	4.35	3.92	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	10.5%	10.6%	-0.0%	2.1%	6.80	4.70	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	10.5%	10.6%	-0.0%	2.1%	6.80	4.70	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	12.7%	11.7%	0.9%	1.9%	6.80	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	WSH	2	2	12	51	8	6	1	100%	6.0	14.9%	11.7%	3.1%	2.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	151	638	96	75	19	100%	6.3	15.1%	11.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.33	-0.7
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	139	585	89	69	19	100%	6.3	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.3%	5.37	5.50	-0.9
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	36	28	7	100%	6.2	15.1%	11.7%	3.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.33	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	76	321	49	38	11	100%	6.3	15.1%	11.9%	3.3%	3.3%	5.37	5.50	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	132	557	84	66	18	100%	6.3	15.1%	11.8%	3.3%	3.2%	5.32	5.05	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	127	100	27	100%	6.4	15.1%	11.8%	3.3%	3.2%	5.32	5.05	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		240	134	852	3788	549	460	107	56%	3.6	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.05	4.96	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	31	200	889	129	108	25	56%	3.6	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.05	4.96	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	14.9%	11.7%	2.7%	—	5.41	15.1%	3.3%	290	+0.21	—	—	—
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	73
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	73
Clay Buchholz R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP-	4.94	15.8%	9.2%	3.7%	.260	4.18	17.8%	11.6%	180	-0.76	2.51	433	71
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	70
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	67
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	67
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	67
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	248	63
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	63
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	62
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	61
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	59
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.27	283	58
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	57
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	57
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	56
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	56
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	151	15.0%	11.8%	1.15	5.27
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48