Luis Reyes
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 163 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.34
FIP5.34
K%15.6%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%2.3%
ROS IP163
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 24 | 24 | 118 | 514 | 72 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 10.4% | 11.5% | -1.1% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 5.13 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 24 | 24 | 118 | 514 | 72 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 4.26 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 87 | 397 | 53 | 52 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 10.2% | 15.1% | -4.9% | 2.5% | 5.09 | 5.54 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 87 | 397 | 53 | 52 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 13.4% | 13.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 5.03 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 26 | 26 | 143 | 622 | 133 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.18 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 26 | 26 | 143 | 622 | 133 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.10 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 304 | 39 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 10.2% | 12.4% | -2.1% | 4.5% | 5.14 | 6.25 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 68 | 304 | 39 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.8% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 5.08 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 31 | 7 | 77 | 338 | 78 | 35 | 2 | 23% | 2.5 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 4.81 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 31 | 7 | 77 | 338 | 78 | 35 | 2 | 23% | 2.5 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 0.6% | 4.81 | 2.77 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 127 | 553 | 109 | 59 | 19 | 96% | 5.1 | 16.3% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.31 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 127 | 553 | 109 | 59 | 19 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.19 | 4.73 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 121 | 534 | 114 | 68 | 17 | 81% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.80 | 5.44 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 121 | 534 | 114 | 68 | 17 | 81% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 5.80 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 0 | 68 | 313 | 67 | 46 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.35 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 0 | 68 | 313 | 67 | 46 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 14.7% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 4.35 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 32 | 1 | 44 | 213 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 11.2% | 12.3% | -1.2% | 2.1% | 6.80 | 4.89 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 32 | 1 | 44 | 213 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 12.7% | 11.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 6.80 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 163 | 689 | 107 | 91 | 19 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.6% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 151 | 638 | 100 | 83 | 19 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 139 | 585 | 92 | 77 | 19 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.48 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 76 | 321 | 50 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.48 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 132 | 557 | 88 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.17 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 111 | 27 | 100% | 6.4 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.43 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 240 | 134 | 852 | 3788 | 554 | 471 | 103 | 56% | 3.6 | 14.6% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.94 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 31 | 200 | 889 | 130 | 111 | 24 | 56% | 3.6 | 14.6% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 15.6% | 13.2% | 2.7% | — | 5.53 | 15.7% | 2.6% | 290 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 71 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 70 |
| Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 70 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 69 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 66 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 66 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 63 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 63 |
| David Fletcher R 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 62 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 62 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 61 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.25 | 10.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .289 | 6.06 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 22 | +0.81 | 3.78 | 248 | 61 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 60 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 58 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 57 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 57 |
| Alex Caldera R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.61 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 120 | 57 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 56 |
| Randy Wynne R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.58 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | .283 | 7.08 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 60 | +1.50 | 4.52 | 461 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 151 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 1.15 | 5.39 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |