Jake Thompson (P, Worcester Red Sox) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Thompson P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%20.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	26	26	126	559	96	47	9	100%	4.8	13.2%	9.7%	3.6%	2.1%	5.30	4.39	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	26	26	126	559	96	47	9	100%	4.8	17.2%	8.4%	8.8%	1.6%	5.30	3.63	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	4	0	7	28	5	1	0	0%	1.8	17.9%	3.6%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.04	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	4	0	7	28	5	1	0	0%	1.8	17.9%	3.6%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	32	149	31	21	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	15.6%	2.3%	2.1%	4.55	4.72	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	32	149	31	21	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	1.3%	4.55	3.95	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	48	219	56	31	1	3%	1.5	21.5%	15.1%	6.4%	0.5%	3.54	3.50	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	48	219	56	31	1	3%	1.5	25.6%	14.2%	11.4%	0.5%	3.54	2.98	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	17	95	14	14	1	0%	1.3	9.4%	8.2%	1.2%	0.0%	8.47	3.34	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	17	95	14	14	1	0%	1.3	9.4%	8.2%	1.2%	0.0%	8.47	3.34	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	17	95	14	14	1	0%	1.3	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	1.1%	8.47	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	9.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.51	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.71	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		106	27	230	1050	161	119	16	25%	2.2	15.4%	11.3%	4.0%	1.6%	5.02	4.09	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	24	200	914	141	104	14	25%	2.2	15.4%	11.3%	4.0%	1.6%	5.02	4.09	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.5%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.71	20.4%	10.9%	20	+0.20	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	72
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	71
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	71
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	70
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	70
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	70
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	69
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	69
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	69
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	67
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	67
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	66
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	66
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	66
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	66