Jake Thompson
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.6%
IP8
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 26 | 26 | 126 | 559 | 96 | 47 | 9 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 5.30 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 4 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 30 | 0 | 32 | 149 | 31 | 21 | 2 | 17.9% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 4.55 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 33 | 1 | 48 | 219 | 56 | 31 | 1 | 21.5% | 15.1% | 0.5% | 3.54 | 3.50 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 17 | 95 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 9.6% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 8.47 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 8 | — | 8 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 27 | 230 | 1050 | 162 | 120 | 17 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 5.02 | 4.12 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 24 | 200 | 914 | 141 | 104 | 15 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 5.02 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 91 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 78 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 77 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 74 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 74 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 73 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.